MQ-000619
Ath Bilbao v Alaves · La Liga · Sat 19 Sept · 14:15 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.91
- Market price
- 1.97
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC2ec80…ff0a
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zo7qj00osr6ruebnnvg3a",
"edge": 0.042298,
"fairOdds": 1.91,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.522509,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000619",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC2faae…a609
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zo7qj00osr6ruebnnvg3a",
"edge": 0.042298,
"fairOdds": 1.91,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.522509,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000619",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 52.3% · UNDER 47.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.97
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000619
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 1.97
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 06:09 UTCba119…eced
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3pe7yi00b2r6kzure32ecu",
"edge": 0.027213,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T06:09:13.902Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.507424,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000619.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000619",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T06:09:13.902Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTCb13f4…852f
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3pe7yi00b2r6kzure32ecu",
"edge": 0.027213,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T06:09:13.902Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.507424,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000619.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000619",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 50.7% · UNDER 49.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.97
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000619.v2
- Fair price
- 1.97
- Market price
- 1.86
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTCc2f0c…1ccb
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu865zvx0058r60ni85nxt60",
"edge": -0.003369,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.86,
"modelProbability": 0.507157,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000619.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000619.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 12:02 UTC1725f…fb0f
{
"confidenceScore": 94,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu865zvx0058r60ni85nxt60",
"edge": -0.003369,
"fairOdds": 1.97,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtl7l1005wr6dts5o9jsb0",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.86,
"modelProbability": 0.507157,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000619.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000619.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:02:04.791Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 50.7% · UNDER 49.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.86
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.