PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000627

MQ-000627

Stuttgart v Dortmund · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept · 16:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 45.5% · confidence 72

בוטל

Fair price: 2.20
Market price: 2.77
Probability gap: 11.4 percentage points
Generated: Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published: Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC0f312…9593

0f312e17a1eed3953ac6132e8879be3afe0298dfb3ab21d5e0db5d5c37d89593

{
 "confidenceScore": 72,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zoqbj00tsr6ruzzsa359k",
 "edge": 0.113942,
 "fairOdds": 2.2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.455389,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC36986…d676

36986be01a0b34f97a6e48133c1c530ac546076a69450e72ad567f2e33f0d676

{
 "confidenceScore": 72,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zoqbj00tsr6ruzzsa359k",
 "edge": 0.113942,
 "fairOdds": 2.2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.455389,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.6% · DRAW 23.9% · AWAY 45.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-15 18:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-15 18:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.77
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000627

1X2 · AWAY · 47.7% · confidence 71 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.10
Market price: 2.77
Probability gap: 13.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Published: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC2cc03…3765

2cc0308f858d994c5c22f4952ddcba80fa55ce6585b9fbbcb61fed62191b3765

{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lkvbq007yr6tnzb5nrmjs",
 "edge": 0.135531,
 "fairOdds": 2.1,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.476978,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000627",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC43633…abc6

4363327350ebbc17d18ec6d940fe65ec5f78ed8d301eb08292a745b208fbabc6

{
 "confidenceScore": 71,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lkvbq007yr6tnzb5nrmjs",
 "edge": 0.135531,
 "fairOdds": 2.1,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.77,
 "modelProbability": 0.476978,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000627",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 27.3% · DRAW 25.0% · AWAY 47.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.77
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000627.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 38.3% · confidence 73 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.61
Market price: 2.64
Probability gap: 2.2 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTCcde6f…4ef3

cde6fa94181329a340dd9645d6d1eb10f57ed6c8efc0f518cf588043369a4ef3

{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu866u9n007mr60nfu5n22nv",
 "edge": 0.022485,
 "fairOdds": 2.61,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.64,
 "modelProbability": 0.382624,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000627.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC9fa40…3b60

9fa40dd9eeeffc88abb21736cc2b3cedba180173934bf5348e135c1596243b60

{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu866u9n007mr60nfu5n22nv",
 "edge": 0.022485,
 "fairOdds": 2.61,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.64,
 "modelProbability": 0.382624,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000627.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 35.0% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 38.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.64
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000627.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 45.5% · confidence 72 · reason: Official lineup

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.20
Market price: 2.66
Probability gap: 9.8 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 14:07 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 14:07 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 14:07 UTC7ee25…a944

7ee2538de16482167fcbcdae97b31b4756a046aee9685c0d1f052b3779e7a944

{
 "confidenceScore": 72,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu8gtew2004er6yim9i77c8d",
 "edge": 0.097906,
 "fairOdds": 2.2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T14:07:40.358Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.66,
 "modelProbability": 0.455389,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000627.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:07:40.358Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC0f39a…dc4c

0f39a414c68742cbc1a0be6a3c8d55a633ee609e852d93f7b348d1125120dc4c

{
 "confidenceScore": 72,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu8gtew2004er6yim9i77c8d",
 "edge": 0.097906,
 "fairOdds": 2.2,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtlrt80094r6dtx5uh3t5a",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T14:07:40.358Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.66,
 "modelProbability": 0.455389,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000627.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000627.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.6% · DRAW 23.9% · AWAY 45.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 14:07Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 14:07Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.66
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.