PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000631

MQ-000631

Celta v Santander · La Liga · Sat 19 Sept · 16:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 46.9% · confidence 75

בוטל

Fair price: 2.13
Market price: 1.78
Probability gap: 6 percentage points
Generated: Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published: Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC83b2f…5931

83b2f226a226dfb99193fdf1c720ad347e0fa63a51575ec0f979f07d2c705931

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zp0jh00w6r6ru2hyiv8af",
 "edge": -0.059758,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.78,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC2b0cd…db88

2b0cd8ec76089f6e13752287d261f2af813f9d5dd8e6c7659f5761acf5a1db88

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zp0jh00w6r6ru2hyiv8af",
 "edge": -0.059758,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.78,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-15 18:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-15 18:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.78
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000631

1X2 · HOME · 44.0% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.27
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 8.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Published: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTCd1791…7017

d1791b228c6fb6492f05b0164a771e5ce5e00cdd0e9f0a9d2feef2441a147017

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5iufbj009ar6fx48wtczkl",
 "edge": -0.084784,
 "fairOdds": 2.27,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.44001,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000631",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC419b4…f189

419b478dd70bb3eeefc47916840dd983d7fe8d5e918969799c6a811f6b65f189

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5iufbj009ar6fx48wtczkl",
 "edge": -0.084784,
 "fairOdds": 2.27,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.44001,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000631",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 44.0% · DRAW 29.1% · AWAY 26.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000631.v2

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 10.8 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC5fa84…6dde

5fa84df3471b5c4230a0540df119bc773779993d83b163248e782d3b0caf6dde

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu867bna008yr60nai97bos0",
 "edge": -0.107878,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000631.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC46fbb…11d3

46fbbb2b692cd7ae801b0b076890a50063f4a7b8e998d2512491b3832f3411d3

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu867bna008yr60nai97bos0",
 "edge": -0.107878,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000631.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000631.v3

1X2 · HOME · 38.2% · confidence 57 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.62
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 15 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 12:11 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 12:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 12:11 UTCe0873…5a7e

e08737634239981ca5d3a57475d46696327811e14528238b58aef43ecd575a7e

{
 "confidenceScore": 57,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu8coe1c002yr6gwvtfs3fhm",
 "edge": -0.14976,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T12:11:26.597Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000631.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T12:11:26.597Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 14:32 UTCa269b…bae8

a269be463758ce2d39829e3b8c5cae56175884b36cce500eab1695ec9f1dbae8

{
 "confidenceScore": 57,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu8coe1c002yr6gwvtfs3fhm",
 "edge": -0.14976,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtl84t0062r6dt7a5lfp5c",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T12:11:26.597Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.382014,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000631.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000631.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T14:32:05.948Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 12:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 12:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.