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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000638

MQ-000638

Maccabi Haifa v Ironi Tiberias · Israeli Premier League · Sat 19 Sept · 17:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 52.1% · confidence 80
בוטל
Fair price
1.92
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Published
Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
Locked
Sat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC3d358…87c6
3d358464a7daba856859dcd5b6044ee65b38bc3c3f1c307bc21cdfbf5e5b87c6
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 41,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zpf8b010kr6ru0yqchcgp",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.521451,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC2b582…0400
2b5822cee260c52be53f7b54f321b958f25d859a38cf624b40bf9fc2169b0400
{
 "confidenceScore": 80,
 "dataQualityScore": 41,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zpf8b010kr6ru0yqchcgp",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.92,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.521451,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:02:05.813Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 52.1% · DRAW 27.9% · AWAY 20.0%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-15 18:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-15 18:08Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000638

1X2 · HOME · 52.9% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.89
Market price
1.33
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
14.4 percentage points
Generated
Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Published
Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Locked
Sat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC12b4b…9b4a
12b4b48556af95239ec57ef4eb0eef180313eed4aa69a8d91b954469d6429b4a
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f3fm500amr6lyluplyu4z",
 "edge": -0.143881,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000638",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC714f6…1d8f
714f64cad78a4453d7481d05d44a5df6b6350b268af9f07ab1e39c5e8f111d8f
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f3fm500amr6lyluplyu4z",
 "edge": -0.143881,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000638",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:02:05.813Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-16 18:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-16 18:09Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.33
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000638.v2

1X2 · HOME · 52.9% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
בוטל
Fair price
1.89
Market price
1.28
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
17 percentage points
Generated
Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published
Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked
Sat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTCbe56c…6596
be56c09e0eab2d3b4f8c26adf21c1f41aa6c5d80ca586cf59e3be77ac93a6596
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu867lab00akr60nqmvmv0vm",
 "edge": -0.17029,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000638.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTCb0b6e…86d7
b0b6ec03f10c3615aa1a0ce211681dc8d33964f61f4f690894d74a79878b86d7
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu867lab00akr60nqmvmv0vm",
 "edge": -0.17029,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000638.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:02:05.813Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-19 09:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-19 09:10Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.28
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000638.v3

1X2 · HOME · 52.9% · confidence 83 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
1.89
Market price
1.22
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
20.2 percentage points
Generated
Sat 19 Sept · 15:10 UTC
Published
Sat 19 Sept · 15:10 UTC
Locked
Sat 19 Sept · 15:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 15:10 UTC68c28…562c
68c283b059eadc4087a8544249d79bae931788ce3e6c04ff1a6c28a20881562c
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu8izv6b0018r6nug0avw2si",
 "edge": -0.20176,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T15:10:30.882Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.22,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000638.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:10:30.882Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:32 UTC352d4…0219
352d4713d2906fb9546b8f43e147a218ecfc45c22947381cf029ef606e310219
{
 "confidenceScore": 83,
 "dataQualityScore": 57,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu8izv6b0018r6nug0avw2si",
 "edge": -0.20176,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmtxtixe8001xr6dtfasmr38n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T15:10:30.882Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.22,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000638.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000638.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:32:05.100Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
global
Feature snapshot taken
2026-09-19 15:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-09-19 15:10Z
Data coverage
STANDARD
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
1.22
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.