MQ-000642
Maccabi Petah Tikva v Hapoel Katamon · Israeli Premier League · Sat 19 Sept · 16:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 18:08 UTC1ea9b…964c
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 18,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zpoa6012or6ru0d35b3hy",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtiylt0029r6dt5jy9aldx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000642",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTCddb7c…8a70
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 18,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu2zpoa6012or6ru0d35b3hy",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtiylt0029r6dt5jy9aldx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T18:08:50.298Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.529268,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000642",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:02:05.813Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 18:08Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000642
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- —
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- No market price to compare against.
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 06:09 UTCc9552…700d
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 18,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3pf06100fsr6kzjxfm24ja",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtiylt0029r6dt5jy9aldx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T06:09:13.902Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000642.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000642",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T06:09:13.902Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC3c1e7…48be
{
"confidenceScore": 69,
"dataQualityScore": 18,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu3pf06100fsr6kzjxfm24ja",
"edge": null,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtiylt0029r6dt5jy9aldx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T06:09:13.902Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": null,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000642.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000642",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:02:05.813Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- not recorded for this prediction
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000642.v2
- Fair price
- 2.04
- Market price
- 2.20
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTCfb9c8…fb99
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f3lw200cer6lyc3ffmnsy",
"edge": 0.085537,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtiylt0029r6dt5jy9aldx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.2,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000642.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000642.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 15:02 UTC7f397…7a7f
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f3lw200cer6lyc3ffmnsy",
"edge": 0.085537,
"fairOdds": 2.04,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtiylt0029r6dt5jy9aldx",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.2,
"modelProbability": 0.489812,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000642.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000642.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T15:02:05.813Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 49.0% · DRAW 27.4% · AWAY 23.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.20
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.