MQ-000650
Toulouse v Le Havre · Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept · 18:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 1.80
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 15 Sept · 21:17 UTC
- Published
- Tue 15 Sept · 21:17 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 15 Sept · 21:17 UTC9f368…50ff
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu36dil300a4r61iyus99cqy",
"edge": -0.09822,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlzzy00aar6dtdit0ca6j",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T21:17:10.438Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.8,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000650",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-15T21:17:10.438Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 16:32 UTCcf60a…1f7f
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu36dil300a4r61iyus99cqy",
"edge": -0.09822,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlzzy00aar6dtdit0ca6j",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-15T21:17:10.438Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.8,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000650",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T16:32:00.653Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-15 21:17Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-15 21:17Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.80
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000650
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 1.76
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Published
- Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC2d132…4627
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu5iv49b00ccr6fxfnjd0xte",
"edge": -0.138531,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlzzy00aar6dtdit0ca6j",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.76,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000650.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000650",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 16:32 UTC2bfe6…c08b
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu5iv49b00ccr6fxfnjd0xte",
"edge": -0.138531,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlzzy00aar6dtdit0ca6j",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.76,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000650.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000650",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T16:32:00.653Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-17 12:40Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.76
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000650.v2
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 1.70
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 16.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 19 Sept · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTCa4bf8…3b91
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu868apo00bwr60nu316yw9q",
"edge": -0.16151,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlzzy00aar6dtdit0ca6j",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.7,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000650.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000650.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 19 Sept · 16:32 UTC57432…e59b
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu868apo00bwr60nu316yw9q",
"edge": -0.16151,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmtxtlzzy00aar6dtdit0ca6j",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.7,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000650.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000650.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T16:32:00.653Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.70
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.