MQ-000663
Fiorentina v Napoli · Serie A · Sun 20 Sept · 10:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.77
- Market price
- 3.23
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 12:10 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 12:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 08:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 12:10 UTC71680…cfde
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu42ez9600aor6cz63c62anz",
"edge": 0.06714,
"fairOdds": 2.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojcad006qr6ls43wcr8vy",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T12:10:10.183Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.23,
"modelProbability": 0.36083,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000663",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T12:10:10.183Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 08:32 UTC59d8e…7510
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu42ez9600aor6cz63c62anz",
"edge": 0.06714,
"fairOdds": 2.77,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojcad006qr6ls43wcr8vy",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T12:10:10.183Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.23,
"modelProbability": 0.36083,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000663",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T08:32:06.079Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 36.1% · DRAW 29.0% · AWAY 34.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 12:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 12:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.23
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000663
- Fair price
- 2.44
- Market price
- 3.23
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 11.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 08:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC9c3d9…3469
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu869m7600fwr60nv1l8x4bn",
"edge": 0.116359,
"fairOdds": 2.44,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojcad006qr6ls43wcr8vy",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.23,
"modelProbability": 0.409807,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000663.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000663",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 08:32 UTCeaa68…7e6a
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu869m7600fwr60nv1l8x4bn",
"edge": 0.116359,
"fairOdds": 2.44,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojcad006qr6ls43wcr8vy",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.23,
"modelProbability": 0.409807,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000663.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000663",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T08:32:06.079Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.0% · DRAW 28.2% · AWAY 30.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.23
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.