MQ-000674
Leeds v Crystal Palace · Premier League · Sun 20 Sept · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- 1.79
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTCce0d6…731a
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48xpo100her6jj3hscdzqf",
"edge": 0.029411,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0oiit10038r6lsx801lzx2",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.79,
"modelProbability": 0.560081,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000674",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 11:02 UTCb2a10…f65f
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48xpo100her6jj3hscdzqf",
"edge": 0.029411,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0oiit10038r6lsx801lzx2",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.79,
"modelProbability": 0.560081,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000674",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T11:02:06.085Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 56.0% · DRAW 24.5% · AWAY 19.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.79
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000674
- Fair price
- 1.69
- Market price
- 1.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC81f34…07b1
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu86aj8500j8r60nxmwiaj53",
"edge": 0.040397,
"fairOdds": 1.69,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0oiit10038r6lsx801lzx2",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.59085,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000674.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000674",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 11:02 UTCd6efc…2d62
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu86aj8500j8r60nxmwiaj53",
"edge": 0.040397,
"fairOdds": 1.69,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0oiit10038r6lsx801lzx2",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.59085,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000674.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000674",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T11:02:06.085Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 59.1% · DRAW 24.3% · AWAY 16.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000674.v2
- Fair price
- 1.72
- Market price
- 1.70
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 1.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 20 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Published
- Sun 20 Sept · 06:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 06:09 UTC67352…9653
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9f32f0000wr64mwu3w919u",
"edge": 0.018005,
"fairOdds": 1.72,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0oiit10038r6lsx801lzx2",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T06:09:06.144Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.7,
"modelProbability": 0.580433,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000674.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000674.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T06:09:06.144Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 11:02 UTCf6f05…2df2
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9f32f0000wr64mwu3w919u",
"edge": 0.018005,
"fairOdds": 1.72,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0oiit10038r6lsx801lzx2",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T06:09:06.144Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.7,
"modelProbability": 0.580433,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000674.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000674.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T11:02:06.085Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 58.0% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 16.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-20 06:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-20 06:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.70
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.