MQ-000683
Leverkusen v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept · 13:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.90
- Market price
- 1.97
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC8377d…6a2c
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48y71q00mkr6jjyrlcoskx",
"edge": 0.047296,
"fairOdds": 1.9,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojp1c008er6lskvg2fowo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.526962,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000683",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 11:32 UTC072d8…35c0
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu48y71q00mkr6jjyrlcoskx",
"edge": 0.047296,
"fairOdds": 1.9,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojp1c008er6lskvg2fowo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.526962,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000683",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T11:32:05.788Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 52.7% · DRAW 21.4% · AWAY 25.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 15:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.97
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000683
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- 1.96
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTCb9521…3c0e
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu86b3un00kyr60nalpsa1ls",
"edge": 0.076119,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojp1c008er6lskvg2fowo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.560125,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000683.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000683",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 11:32 UTCa36d2…1c41
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu86b3un00kyr60nalpsa1ls",
"edge": 0.076119,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojp1c008er6lskvg2fowo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.560125,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000683.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000683",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T11:32:05.788Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 56.0% · DRAW 20.6% · AWAY 23.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-19 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.96
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000683.v2
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- 1.86
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 20 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Sun 20 Sept · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 12:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 12:09 UTC98f79…ac8a
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9rytf50012r6sinelabka0",
"edge": 0.049797,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojp1c008er6lskvg2fowo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T12:09:47.222Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.86,
"modelProbability": 0.560125,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000683.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000683.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T12:09:47.222Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 12:32 UTC0fdb3…a19f
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9rytf50012r6sinelabka0",
"edge": 0.049797,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojp1c008er6lskvg2fowo",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T12:09:47.222Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.86,
"modelProbability": 0.560125,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000683.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000683.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T12:32:04.698Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 56.0% · DRAW 20.6% · AWAY 23.4%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-20 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-20 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.86
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.