PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000686

MQ-000686

Ath Madrid v Real Madrid · La Liga · Sun 20 Sept · 14:15 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 50.8% · confidence 91

בוטל

Fair price: 1.97
Market price: 1.83
Probability gap: 0.9 percentage points
Generated: Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
Published: Wed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 15:15 UTC15eca…8ce7

15eca28c52be54bc9f05f3075eff861ddf4972f43fd1fa7b17d9c346b5a78ce7

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu48yd5f00oer6jjc3knvysa",
 "edge": -0.008971,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.83,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTCb175b…966d

b175b42d5b84d3e3bd6705d5caa21f0ba2bb36f17790159d71b574b04f33966d

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu48yd5f00oer6jjc3knvysa",
 "edge": -0.008971,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T15:15:19.043Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.83,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T12:02:05.619Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 24.8% · DRAW 24.3% · AWAY 50.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-16 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-16 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.83
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000686

1X2 · AWAY · 50.8% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.97
Market price: 1.92
Probability gap: 1.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Published: Thu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 17 Sept · 12:40 UTCe47cd…1fb5

e47cd3fd00619e59a382ceb7347be99007a241611fd89c554fcb813683581fb5

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5ix4pl00g8r6fxz5y4xbsp",
 "edge": 0.015006,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.92,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000686",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC2bff5…426f

2bff58a438d6da5e9b385c0cca2dcd5bc661198510dddfd18eb1fe9b15f2426f

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu5ix4pl00g8r6fxz5y4xbsp",
 "edge": 0.015006,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:40:09.042Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.92,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000686",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T12:02:05.619Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 24.8% · DRAW 24.3% · AWAY 50.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-17 12:40Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.92
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000686.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 53.3% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 1.97
Probability gap: 5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC8f76a…8035

8f76ae5781f622e2945c8a1a32746028be6606ee869c22555ea898d076bb8035

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu86bavf00lor60nw58n67w4",
 "edge": 0.050027,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.97,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000686.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC22edd…7295

22edd55a56f552a7c66d9724d5e6e9f745b3e34c8fa690a3b95cf128d7c57295

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu86bavf00lor60nw58n67w4",
 "edge": 0.050027,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.97,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000686.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T12:02:05.619Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 53.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.97
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000686.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 53.6% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 1.87
Market price: 2.07
Probability gap: 7.4 percentage points
Generated: Sun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTCe6206…0c33

e620686b9f0c7c4a4358fd588182ebb1c504aa129663ff1adc9ef6dbbb590c33

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9lkvy2002mr6jxgep6dcr6",
 "edge": 0.073615,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000686.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 12:02 UTC6139b…64cf

6139bc6665f40572e7c71394a2d8dee38d5605eff16752dfe5cbbcd6cd1f64cf

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9lkvy2002mr6jxgep6dcr6",
 "edge": 0.073615,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj0cx0058r6lsowav4mja",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000686.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000686.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T12:02:05.619Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-20 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-20 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.07
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.