MQ-000692
FC Schalke 04 v SV 07 Elversberg · Bundesliga · Sun 20 Sept · 15:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.35
- Market price
- 2.03
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC21a22…2ad0
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f4u6m00gyr6lyvnp20cjf",
"edge": -0.041975,
"fairOdds": 2.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojpn0008kr6ls0u87crsc",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.03,
"modelProbability": 0.424979,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000692",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 13:32 UTC5411f…2037
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f4u6m00gyr6lyvnp20cjf",
"edge": -0.041975,
"fairOdds": 2.35,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojpn0008kr6ls0u87crsc",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.03,
"modelProbability": 0.424979,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000692",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T13:32:06.074Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.5% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 30.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-16 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-16 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.03
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000692
- Fair price
- 2.18
- Market price
- 1.95
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Published
- Sun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTCc1130…6f9c
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9ll7i90046r6jxm0l2tk34",
"edge": -0.027761,
"fairOdds": 2.18,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojpn0008kr6ls0u87crsc",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.95,
"modelProbability": 0.458964,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000692.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000692",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 13:32 UTCe01e1…f429
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 33,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9ll7i90046r6jxm0l2tk34",
"edge": -0.027761,
"fairOdds": 2.18,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojpn0008kr6ls0u87crsc",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.95,
"modelProbability": 0.458964,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000692.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000692",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T13:32:06.074Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 45.9% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 28.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-20 09:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-20 09:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.95
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000692.v2
- Fair price
- 2.32
- Market price
- 1.93
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 6.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 20 Sept · 13:07 UTC
- Published
- Sun 20 Sept · 13:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 20 Sept · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 13:07 UTCaea3b…6c6c
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 35,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9u289i0025r6tggx2ft7cn",
"edge": -0.062083,
"fairOdds": 2.32,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojpn0008kr6ls0u87crsc",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T13:07:09.439Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.93,
"modelProbability": 0.430302,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000692.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000692.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T13:07:09.439Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 13:32 UTC91013…8843
{
"confidenceScore": 71,
"dataQualityScore": 35,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmu9u289i0025r6tggx2ft7cn",
"edge": -0.062083,
"fairOdds": 2.32,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmu0ojpn0008kr6ls0u87crsc",
"generatedAt": "2026-09-20T13:07:09.439Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.93,
"modelProbability": 0.430302,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000692.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000692.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-09-20T13:32:06.074Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 43.0% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 30.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-09-20 13:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-09-20 13:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.93
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.