PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000700

MQ-000700

Villarreal v Levante · La Liga · Sun 20 Sept · 16:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 58.0% · confidence 90

בוטל

Fair price: 1.72
Market price: 1.56
Probability gap: 2.3 percentage points
Generated: Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 18:09 UTC6c370…11e1

6c370855d1de45d8c99f0ab09992faeede5de1ee042b0dd2626b17e4b76611e1

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f5ch100m2r6lydo55km3r",
 "edge": -0.022611,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.56,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC4226c…cf0e

4226ce26655350c5d28a38a715edbe4ef703ce8eaf2decbe476f24f1adb6cf0e

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4f5ch100m2r6lydo55km3r",
 "edge": -0.022611,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T18:09:07.723Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.56,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T14:32:03.785Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.0% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 16.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-16 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-16 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.56
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000700

1X2 · HOME · 55.4% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.81
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 8.1 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC3b84c…ae3c

3b84cb0efcd191f8be786168153611b83f1c22804c4ff126b79b59b3d20dae3c

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu86ce0900ocr60ncyxpve0s",
 "edge": -0.080553,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.553868,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000700",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC76a18…3523

76a188f36b5e549aef4a9c9d43ff3178ed1ee7815bca93e04c99d78d50cc3523

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu86ce0900ocr60ncyxpve0s",
 "edge": -0.080553,
 "fairOdds": 1.81,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.553868,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000700",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T14:32:03.785Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 55.4% · DRAW 25.4% · AWAY 19.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000700.v2

1X2 · HOME · 52.9% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 10.4 percentage points
Generated: Sun 20 Sept · 00:06 UTC
Published: Sun 20 Sept · 00:06 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 00:06 UTCa3c07…f0ca

a3c070adcdf8e28409d1961f3bfac1e86088061a8c0913e3b6b1f94d7c79f0ca

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9251l9002kr6nzl4cm63ze",
 "edge": -0.103991,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T00:06:54.275Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000700.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T00:06:54.275Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC610bb…032f

610bba21d41fcd45637c638d8cde203e9641432d1573876bb50650b560ed032f

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9251l9002kr6nzl4cm63ze",
 "edge": -0.103991,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T00:06:54.275Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.529268,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000700.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T14:32:03.785Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 52.9% · DRAW 26.8% · AWAY 20.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-20 00:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-20 00:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000700.v3

1X2 · HOME · 57.2% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.75
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 6.2 percentage points
Generated: Sun 20 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Published: Sun 20 Sept · 06:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 06:09 UTC1b677…76df

1b6773cc01b9ae528c4383a154b78da3db6ea5d2030b642b51bc86734e5a76df

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9f5c8d006er64ml1c3rv84",
 "edge": -0.061831,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T06:09:06.144Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.571863,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000700.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T06:09:06.144Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 14:32 UTC444f7…4868

444f7aec7ad032a33c52b4d11bbbf34124df9db8117172edfb5dd30088564868

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9f5c8d006er64ml1c3rv84",
 "edge": -0.061831,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0oj1gs005kr6lsi1jm1csr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T06:09:06.144Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.571863,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000700.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000700.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T14:32:03.785Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 57.2% · DRAW 26.2% · AWAY 16.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-20 06:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-20 06:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.