PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000707

MQ-000707

Marseille v Paris SG · Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sept · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 48.5% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 2.06
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 18 percentage points
Generated: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Published: Wed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 16 Sept · 21:11 UTCcf25e…3b63

cf25ec325ffde586cebedf29e5b7563b10f4c4110a0f3731ccf98413e1aa3b63

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lmwfp00g6r6tnro7vv11f",
 "edge": -0.179682,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 16:32 UTCaf19c…96ae

af19c3a301756033a438d8b8813096898df9535f0fd462af6667ca443e5d96ae

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu4lmwfp00g6r6tnro7vv11f",
 "edge": -0.179682,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-16T21:11:21.017Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T16:32:00.895Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-16 21:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000707

1X2 · AWAY · 53.3% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 1.38
Probability gap: 15.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 19 Sept · 09:10 UTC05752…9847

05752f504f3f8769c3e41a9ebce0b949d35905e423b578d0b691c363c3df9847

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu86cyqb00q2r60nu94fe7bw",
 "edge": -0.154259,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000707",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 16:32 UTC66e12…54e3

66e12e1d380a5af9e482ad8bdd36f3bf6f6c3494506fff2da1c9e7a94e5454e3

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu86cyqb00q2r60nu94fe7bw",
 "edge": -0.154259,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-19T09:10:32.294Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000707",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T16:32:00.895Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 53.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-19 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.38
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000707.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 53.6% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.87
Market price: 1.43
Probability gap: 12.9 percentage points
Generated: Sun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Published: Sun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 09:10 UTC5518e…dd15

5518e0cba6a97d4ca0c4213225d7bd695fb3484b89581593325b35fd014cdd15

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9lmcgk005yr6jxwpr9uiwv",
 "edge": -0.129325,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.43,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000707.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 16:32 UTC0cf2a…b2ea

0cf2a907c0c74c49ef681c78ed1fb2366332dc1972b0beebc1ddb451461ab2ea

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmu9lmcgk005yr6jxwpr9uiwv",
 "edge": -0.129325,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T09:10:27.031Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.43,
 "modelProbability": 0.53615,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000707.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T16:32:00.895Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.7% · DRAW 25.6% · AWAY 53.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-20 09:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-20 09:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.43
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000707.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 50.8% · confidence 94 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.97
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 16.2 percentage points
Generated: Sun 20 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Published: Sun 20 Sept · 18:06 UTC
Locked: Sun 20 Sept · 18:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 20 Sept · 18:06 UTC5221f…0267

5221f2521192f4ea30e6081f3390a58de60e251fe553861bf48caf0b411e0267

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmua4oesn0008r67m5xvfllz0",
 "edge": -0.162219,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T18:06:28.182Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000707.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T18:06:28.182Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 20 Sept · 18:32 UTC7990a…83da

7990ade515ddcc9c2699569b0a4bd2c3486bdc59a04281e402c372d0c8dc83da

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmua4oesn0008r67m5xvfllz0",
 "edge": -0.162219,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmu0ok1mk00a2r6lsss1bfxzn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-09-20T18:06:28.182Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000707.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000707.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-09-20T18:32:00.945Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 24.8% · DRAW 24.3% · AWAY 50.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-09-20 18:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-09-20 18:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H0_1
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.