PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000713

MQ-000713

Dortmund v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga · Fri 9 Oct · 18:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 70.8% · confidence 91

בוטל

Fair price: 1.41
Market price: 1.36
Probability gap: 1.2 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 06:06 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 06:06 UTC
Locked: Fri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 06:06 UTC06f1d…0dc3

06f1dc7592a303a214a9e61623489aaa7d05c71ccce5ed70ee005d6f88a10dc3

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwa0gzy0002r6928bex38a6",
 "edge": 0.012027,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T06:06:48.942Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T06:06:48.942Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordFri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC3e03a…c0a2

3e03adf066159e4e579cc9a94d7f3e5ec1faf6a83ba41efb23d0e11577f2c0a2

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwa0gzy0002r6928bex38a6",
 "edge": 0.012027,
 "fairOdds": 1.41,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T06:06:48.942Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.707797,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T16:32:04.859Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 70.8% · DRAW 19.9% · AWAY 9.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 06:06Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 06:06Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.36
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000713

1X2 · HOME · 69.9% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.43
Market price: 1.34
Probability gap: 0.8 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 06:09 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 06:09 UTC
Locked: Fri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 06:09 UTC750db…8efd

750db22d24f730ef4b1d2a371df6780cf86739d96ac10dae17435db9b9d48efd

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuz50bxe0002r6p9ky4vvx8p",
 "edge": -0.008462,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:09:58.828Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000713",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T06:09:58.828Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordFri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC1fb5f…121a

1fb5f854599dd99e07aaaaab49964b16d2f3b28637d27e721bf67978e434121a

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuz50bxe0002r6p9ky4vvx8p",
 "edge": -0.008462,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T06:09:58.828Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000713",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T16:32:04.859Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.9% · DRAW 20.8% · AWAY 9.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 06:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 06:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.34
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000713.v2

1X2 · HOME · 69.0% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 1.45
Market price: 1.31
Probability gap: 3.4 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Fri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC8e33c…b5b8

8e33c014a9af1a3cc09818d68de035bfda510562c1268ca4641eefdd7319b5b8

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01bwrq0002r60x4ca17awj",
 "edge": -0.033925,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.689693,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000713.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordFri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC4805a…8a9e

4805aff5ac598ac7b73e3b021fcec84b6cc8faec12f5d67b2e35160bcfc68a9e

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01bwrq0002r60x4ca17awj",
 "edge": -0.033925,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.689693,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000713.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T16:32:04.859Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.0% · DRAW 21.5% · AWAY 9.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.31
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000713.v3

1X2 · HOME · 69.9% · confidence 92 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 1.43
Market price: 1.34
Probability gap: 1.2 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Fri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC42c18…4c54

42c183a46368d8a43df0a706323344ad7358adb178431da2f9a30cf2528a4c54

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qxw6r0002r6a30xm5obt4",
 "edge": -0.011597,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000713.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordFri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC0bd85…ccca

0bd8507a65600f807d4d2c4734b5d3bdf12ae15059340a79efd83ac3f57accca

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qxw6r0002r6a30xm5obt4",
 "edge": -0.011597,
 "fairOdds": 1.43,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.34,
 "modelProbability": 0.699462,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000713.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000713.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T16:32:04.859Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 69.9% · DRAW 20.8% · AWAY 9.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.34
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.