MQ-000714
Dortmund v Werder Bremen · Bundesliga · Fri 9 Oct · 18:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.66
- Market price
- 1.38
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 06:06 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 06:06 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 06:06 UTC381e9…1aa8
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwa0gzy0002r6928bex38a6",
"edge": -0.081663,
"fairOdds": 1.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T06:06:48.942Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.601823,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000714",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T06:06:48.942Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordFri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTCd7db0…817f
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwa0gzy0002r6928bex38a6",
"edge": -0.081663,
"fairOdds": 1.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T06:06:48.942Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.601823,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000714",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T16:32:04.859Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 60.2% · UNDER 39.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 06:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 06:06Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.38
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000714
- Fair price
- 1.70
- Market price
- 1.39
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Fri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTCf07cb…f29c
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01bwrq0002r60x4ca17awj",
"edge": -0.091079,
"fairOdds": 1.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.39,
"modelProbability": 0.589381,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000714.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000714",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordFri 9 Oct · 16:32 UTCb40dc…4f59
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01bwrq0002r60x4ca17awj",
"edge": -0.091079,
"fairOdds": 1.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.39,
"modelProbability": 0.589381,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000714.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000714",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T16:32:04.859Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 58.9% · UNDER 41.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.39
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000714.v2
- Fair price
- 1.70
- Market price
- 1.48
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- —
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 18:09 UTC42c14…ae41
{
"confidenceScore": 96,
"dataQualityScore": 97,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1a5xxt0002r62nuy1v5lic",
"edge": -0.047735,
"fairOdds": 1.7,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmuq7axc202dyi604i1b9hwoz",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T18:09:54.581Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.48,
"modelProbability": 0.58952,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000714.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000714.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T18:09:54.581Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 59.0% · UNDER 41.0%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H0_1
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.48
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.