MQ-000720
Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 11:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.72
- Market price
- 1.37
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 11.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 12:07 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 12:07 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 12:07 UTC181f0…c5d4
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwmwmd6000kr615uury2gdp",
"edge": -0.112057,
"fairOdds": 1.72,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T12:07:14.069Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.37,
"modelProbability": 0.580433,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000720",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T12:07:14.069Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC2f284…5d45
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwmwmd6000kr615uury2gdp",
"edge": -0.112057,
"fairOdds": 1.72,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T12:07:14.069Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.37,
"modelProbability": 0.580433,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000720",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 58.0% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 16.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 12:07Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 12:07Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.37
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000720
- Fair price
- 1.81
- Market price
- 1.38
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.6 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCa8f71…dd18
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoc9dq0012r6dajdhwhb7z",
"edge": -0.135708,
"fairOdds": 1.81,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.553868,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000720.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000720",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC899c5…924c
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoc9dq0012r6dajdhwhb7z",
"edge": -0.135708,
"fairOdds": 1.81,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.553868,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000720.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000720",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 55.4% · DRAW 25.4% · AWAY 19.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 15:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 15:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.38
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000720.v2
- Fair price
- 1.75
- Market price
- 1.38
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 11.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC1c236…2b2c
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv07k75q000kr6w0tgy3jdo1",
"edge": -0.11779,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.571863,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000720.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000720.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC27460…61d0
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv07k75q000kr6w0tgy3jdo1",
"edge": -0.11779,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.38,
"modelProbability": 0.571863,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000720.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000720.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 57.2% · DRAW 26.2% · AWAY 16.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 00:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 00:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.38
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.