PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000721

MQ-000721

Arsenal v Leeds · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 11:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · UNDER · 54.5% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 1.83
Market price: 2.06
Probability gap: 8.7 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 12:07 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 12:07 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 12:07 UTC06761…b29c

067612634a2c6f14883e1b1b5b2abdf1e34ed641c1e59c59d0a46e12cadbb29c

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwmwmd6000kr615uury2gdp",
 "edge": 0.087434,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T12:07:14.069Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.06,
 "modelProbability": 0.545329,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T12:07:14.069Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTCb6a32…1dfc

b6a32f44f18e3fb8e7685652e8b3de2a9dbb48409ab9b3b98ad9bf25f6111dfc

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwmwmd6000kr615uury2gdp",
 "edge": 0.087434,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T12:07:14.069Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.06,
 "modelProbability": 0.545329,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 45.5% · UNDER 54.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 12:07Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 12:07Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.06
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000721

OU25 · UNDER · 56.0% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.79
Market price: 2.05
Probability gap: 9.9 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTCb9048…1a60

b90486ce4b31692f393b2351ed611fb5344f4b801f52fd408810beca9ae11a60

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtn4jg0012r60ggiooo022",
 "edge": 0.099462,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.05,
 "modelProbability": 0.559988,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC6a542…8b7f

6a54295b063fa0de6280f005620d15da11d4b6883f8eb3ae96bdb6222c958b7f

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtn4jg0012r60ggiooo022",
 "edge": 0.099462,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.05,
 "modelProbability": 0.559988,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 44.0% · UNDER 56.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.05
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000721.v2

OU25 · UNDER · 54.5% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.83
Market price: 2.03
Probability gap: 7.8 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTCf3851…7ee5

f385144a0fee2a9a21d827d9cdbd30c524c5e3f663c22a38be4a5eca26ba7ee5

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw21mh0010r6050ynd7lr0",
 "edge": 0.077969,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.03,
 "modelProbability": 0.545161,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTCd3029…c04e

d30297effdffe95d0bae10ab3d51312abf79c491ab010ed020b27dada214c04e

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw21mh0010r6050ynd7lr0",
 "edge": 0.077969,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.03,
 "modelProbability": 0.545161,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 45.5% · UNDER 54.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.03
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000721.v3

OU25 · UNDER · 56.0% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.79
Market price: 2.03
Probability gap: 9.4 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCc0a87…8858

c0a87856f3ba6e0895a5e5fe29694ba57695bff61df24cecc3750f7b9ca38858

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyf9i1l0012r68kxayw9vor",
 "edge": 0.093969,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.03,
 "modelProbability": 0.559758,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC549a1…b300

549a18f4e519a2b4b7d2abf895db0ccc7275e4950a0367cf252763d478f6b300

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyf9i1l0012r68kxayw9vor",
 "edge": 0.093969,
 "fairOdds": 1.79,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.03,
 "modelProbability": 0.559758,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 44.0% · UNDER 56.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.03
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000721.v4

OU25 · UNDER · 54.5% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.84
Market price: 2.05
Probability gap: 8.3 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC9ce6d…83ec

9ce6de7a2380b4c03d77cfae6232e9cb3a1f9568ab9320956abc2789e56e83ec

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbp74h0012r6l8c1u6n554",
 "edge": 0.083017,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.05,
 "modelProbability": 0.544959,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC8f401…b6b1

8f4017712d63a4d9ed22e6fee6e4fb44b298ef6083ad246ac4d94b1a8e20b6b1

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbp74h0012r6l8c1u6n554",
 "edge": 0.083017,
 "fairOdds": 1.84,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.05,
 "modelProbability": 0.544959,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 45.5% · UNDER 54.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.05
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000721.v5

OU25 · UNDER · 56.3% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.78
Market price: 1.98
Probability gap: 8.7 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC91b1b…e91a

91b1bea775c92c377d4a966547b597948aa552861c000a9ccc0280fc7584e91a

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoc9dq0012r6dajdhwhb7z",
 "edge": 0.087085,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.98,
 "modelProbability": 0.563275,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTCee999…58f4

ee999f27c46fcc8207652e0cb2f04c7cb336c6f7a4d6ad0ec7ec31b41a2458f4

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoc9dq0012r6dajdhwhb7z",
 "edge": 0.087085,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.98,
 "modelProbability": 0.563275,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 43.7% · UNDER 56.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.98
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000721.v6

OU25 · UNDER · 54.5% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 1.83
Market price: 2.01
Probability gap: 7.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC4f9b6…7634

4f9b6753b093cc4a63c68274394e200f4286cf134b5372d8ca65ac8546287634

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26dm7u0002r65xj2ms9dcs",
 "edge": 0.07413,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.545183,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 09:32 UTC36f5c…3f77

36f5ceb068349fea235840b4c86655178c6e3d1000c8048333cc03d573203f77

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26dm7u0002r65xj2ms9dcs",
 "edge": 0.07413,
 "fairOdds": 1.83,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmff02ezjv041383ae7n",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 2.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.545183,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000721.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000721.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:32:04.818Z",
 "selection": "UNDER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 45.5% · UNDER 54.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.01
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.