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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000726

MQ-000726

Genoa v Fiorentina · Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 13:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 40.8% · confidence 93
בוטל
Fair price
2.45
Market price
2.30
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.4 percentage points
Generated
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC010e3…ffd5
010e39b61de39ed541192abfe1d31fd7bd79dd317e1c92c46325560723e9ffd5
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtneay001yr60g1h11zedq",
 "edge": -0.004114,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.3,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC6554f…52ca
6554fc5d41686734a99c3d50ff06a57c87bb3bd7e311c0246c6dc9471b8552ca
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtneay001yr60g1h11zedq",
 "edge": -0.004114,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.3,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:05.018Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.30
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000726

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.09
Market price
2.30
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.5 percentage points
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTCa4f5f…8bae
a4f5f466f80ca34deba910dac9a6f1a063ff7fdb8070004a5eba337055588bae
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kepy001gr6w0oq2j29n1",
 "edge": 0.065032,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.3,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000726",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC42f1e…cb2e
42f1ebb042b33db61c4b50372fa1b3540978264b2d119eb5df7bd124add3cb2e
{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kepy001gr6w0oq2j29n1",
 "edge": 0.065032,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.3,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000726",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:05.018Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.30
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000726.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 40.8% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.45
Market price
2.28
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC69d54…6e1b
69d5473e214cf03093dda88e8b7e0b7e34d2b1725b7ef90a18d2c79daa3b6e1b
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26dy97001gr65xokolw4zf",
 "edge": -0.009369,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000726.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC79232…d8ac
792322b81065ef225f202a990308e74143bf5136b8d86a3148dff4287f6dd8ac
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26dy97001gr65xokolw4zf",
 "edge": -0.009369,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000726.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:05.018Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.28
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000726.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh
החטאה
Fair price
2.09
Market price
2.29
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.2 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 12:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC896dc…26b3
896dce7e26d5111a2e07a2a9a9fc9c70627a90536d72a90651e5895243a326b3
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cs6bt0002r6uq6xvhp830",
 "edge": 0.062093,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.29,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000726.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:32 UTC74519…cf0d
745198fd7b228ef3858bd89914b3212e97f14c89af9a4759edb6b90d3ce4cf0d
{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cs6bt0002r6uq6xvhp830",
 "edge": 0.062093,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.29,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000726.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000726.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:32:05.437Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 12:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 12:10Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H0_1
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.29
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.