MQ-000727
Genoa v Fiorentina · Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.76
- Market price
- 1.81
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC52671…2d85
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtneay001yr60g1h11zedq",
"edge": 0.044111,
"fairOdds": 1.76,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.81,
"modelProbability": 0.567795,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000727",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC69ae5…34ba
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtneay001yr60g1h11zedq",
"edge": 0.044111,
"fairOdds": 1.76,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.81,
"modelProbability": 0.567795,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000727",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:05.018Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 43.2% · UNDER 56.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 15:15Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 15:15Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.81
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000727
- Fair price
- 1.79
- Market price
- 1.78
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 2.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC8cbb1…cd42
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kepy001gr6w0oq2j29n1",
"edge": 0.024355,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.78,
"modelProbability": 0.557163,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000727.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000727",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTCfe590…2a83
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kepy001gr6w0oq2j29n1",
"edge": 0.024355,
"fairOdds": 1.79,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.78,
"modelProbability": 0.557163,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000727.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000727",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:05.018Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 44.3% · UNDER 55.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 00:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 00:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.78
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000727.v2
- Fair price
- 1.75
- Market price
- 1.76
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC77188…e970
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv26dy97001gr65xokolw4zf",
"edge": 0.033857,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.76,
"modelProbability": 0.571915,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000727.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000727.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:02 UTCb71ec…580a
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv26dy97001gr65xokolw4zf",
"edge": 0.033857,
"fairOdds": 1.75,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnqf02gpjv046m3b72gd",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.76,
"modelProbability": 0.571915,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000727.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000727.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:02:05.018Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 42.8% · UNDER 57.2%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 09:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 09:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.76
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.