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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000729

MQ-000729

Mainz v Leverkusen · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 40.4% · confidence 75
בוטל
Fair price
2.48
Market price
2.90
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.8 percentage points
Generated
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC9aa22…1e45
9aa22330639c1fadb3a40ba17a9f0f9caf7e1c0c7b9887c012d15f749d141e45
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtnlh9003gr60gu3xbw71c",
 "edge": 0.077959,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC3281d…76dd
3281da37d4b9d6464d3525c69c634f1a54bcee142805464978fa1d36bcba76dd
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtnlh9003gr60gu3xbw71c",
 "edge": 0.077959,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.4% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 33.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.90
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000729

1X2 · HOME · 39.2% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.55
Market price
2.94
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7 percentage points
Generated
Thu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC
Published
Thu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC816b9…505a
816b9070bf5afc8e6e21dd8455acb2d684b3c5e745b06238985394e0b3fd505a
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuys3cc00012r62np3ahia93",
 "edge": 0.069553,
 "fairOdds": 2.55,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.391705,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCe913a…cc6e
e913a0a6ec9db8b69443fa7798d9a2de0553b1ac6ae2e8a85f152ad5f479cc6e
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuys3cc00012r62np3ahia93",
 "edge": 0.069553,
 "fairOdds": 2.55,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.391705,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 35.3%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-08 00:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-08 00:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.94
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000729.v2

1X2 · HOME · 40.4% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.48
Market price
2.94
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.2 percentage points
Generated
Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published
Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC6dded…e38f
6dded84700ab71342c3455abf814f878d78afb6eaf7b18c54f935f829ccce38f
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbq8qu002ur6l8ttk7ljd4",
 "edge": 0.081595,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCd50ab…110c
d50ab3682df898df66514d7bb79868b26edcc8fa7334be10aab01197f8b7110c
{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbq8qu002ur6l8ttk7ljd4",
 "edge": 0.081595,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.4% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 33.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H48_72
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.94
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000729.v3

1X2 · HOME · 38.7% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.58
Market price
2.94
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.5 percentage points
Generated
Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published
Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC58cbf…794c
58cbffb3336410d461aed166f46dccfcb55c442acd6eb7558da05905009d794c
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzocoyl003yr6danw3c8iym",
 "edge": 0.06457,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC5d383…b691
5d383ed444b6b2f25fb4c4e98f0a6b372d248a41466a574b0bfff60ed2c7b691
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzocoyl003yr6danw3c8iym",
 "edge": 0.06457,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.94,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 38.7% · DRAW 25.2% · AWAY 36.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.94
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000729.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 38.2% · confidence 74 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.62
Market price
2.19
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
5.1 percentage points
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC0eebb…da3a
0eebb40cd2db15279a81a966301ffa230f2ddcfcb92da9b98461b7e13db4da3a
{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13wfak005fr6j3cxjjmrtk",
 "edge": -0.051018,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.19,
 "modelProbability": 0.382208,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC4ac7e…aba5
4ac7e54287587a93fcd00972fa3dbdd2937adbc9e9c5f9c49e559167a48faba5
{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13wfak005fr6j3cxjjmrtk",
 "edge": -0.051018,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.19,
 "modelProbability": 0.382208,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 35.1% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 38.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.19
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000729.v5

1X2 · HOME · 38.7% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.58
Market price
2.97
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
6.7 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTCb3e0d…558c
b3e0d6c34518d4fcfd26c596620214f8cd2b582038ca60520431c3d66319558c
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1tllhs000qr62babp2k34s",
 "edge": 0.067394,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.97,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC92ab4…1f24
92ab4f9f3f834c4791809c431b47975b4ac7dc434fdfca8c8855344126801f24
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1tllhs000qr62babp2k34s",
 "edge": 0.067394,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.97,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 38.7% · DRAW 25.2% · AWAY 36.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 03:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 03:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.97
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000729.v6

1X2 · AWAY · 38.2% · confidence 74 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.62
Market price
2.20
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
4.9 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 06:09 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 06:09 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 06:09 UTC87b5a…0c10
87b5afdbf2dae2863b15e602c4a1045bf50218ab44636088d0558acb3f990c10
{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1zvpcz000qr6xqiobjda7s",
 "edge": -0.049152,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T06:09:26.725Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.382208,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T06:09:26.725Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCd3f0b…0638
d3f0bd9d728e7dfe4b2af41242c40e00109918d379aeeca225b1b6e3c8010638
{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1zvpcz000qr6xqiobjda7s",
 "edge": -0.049152,
 "fairOdds": 2.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T06:09:26.725Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.382208,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 35.1% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 38.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 06:09Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 06:09Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.20
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000729.v7

1X2 · HOME · 38.7% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.58
Market price
3.01
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
7.1 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC95c17…db46
95c17322d5c94c9bc0952e4fa891d8dd998458c09eab4cd3498df9c68bcddb46
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ebuq004rr65x19i8h3zm",
 "edge": 0.071336,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCa2de8…d1de
a2de835360ed782d8e72730253b00b3c9cf9918093c2e18e0f48e01c9ff8d1de
{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ebuq004rr65x19i8h3zm",
 "edge": 0.071336,
 "fairOdds": 2.58,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.387333,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 38.7% · DRAW 25.2% · AWAY 36.1%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
3.01
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000729.v8

1X2 · HOME · 40.4% · confidence 76 · reason: Official lineup
החטאה
Fair price
2.48
Market price
3.01
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
8.8 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC25025…49a8
25025388a638e92ed01f8bced72c3595addc8557ca0103a16921d4fa985b49a8
{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2aowk7009jr67sosoksf27",
 "edge": 0.08775,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC06c9c…8bcc
06c9c17a73c30c2c0f055c8e260a9b7405ff39b9d533d5b2a0fc075ad35e8bcc
{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2aowk7009jr67sosoksf27",
 "edge": 0.08775,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmuryno7602h9jv04h1pfo3tf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.01,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000729.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000729.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.4% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 33.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 11:08Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 11:08Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
3.01
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.