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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000733

MQ-000733

Union Berlin v SV 07 Elversberg · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 40.7% · confidence 73
בוטל
Fair price
2.46
Market price
2.27
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.9 percentage points
Generated
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTCc8add…107b
c8add8cdfdc451a01b1abf6df68b3d80d61fae849c67fd36f614541db85d107b
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtnxpq0066r60gdgur520h",
 "edge": -0.008921,
 "fairOdds": 2.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.27,
 "modelProbability": 0.406734,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC269ea…c9a8
269ea0ba460655481930a2365c312b8114bb271a2b5733de1de1b164cdeec9a8
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtnxpq0066r60gdgur520h",
 "edge": -0.008921,
 "fairOdds": 2.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.27,
 "modelProbability": 0.406734,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.7% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 32.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.27
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000733

1X2 · HOME · 41.9% · confidence 73 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.39
Market price
2.28
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.3 percentage points
Generated
Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published
Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC9e3ff…f1a5
9e3ff5c98bf6e8c242ae93a1d876a1532512be47f177e8e1c0e44dd40bd2f1a5
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6fqcm001er6dit5tu59cd",
 "edge": 0.003375,
 "fairOdds": 2.39,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.418728,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000733",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC49c39…dd87
49c39c1b3f293eb6d8d0de0d837e8f4870cde80b08fe3d871f75ba7ec893dd87
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6fqcm001er6dit5tu59cd",
 "edge": 0.003375,
 "fairOdds": 2.39,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.418728,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000733",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 41.9% · DRAW 27.7% · AWAY 30.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-06 21:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-06 21:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.28
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000733.v2

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 73 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
2.51
Market price
2.27
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
1.8 percentage points
Generated
Wed 7 Oct · 00:06 UTC
Published
Wed 7 Oct · 00:06 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 00:06 UTCd2e40…da25
d2e40d7b421e20d7b9f392fc5c00dc255935b2820d63b54c7e8a1b559494da25
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxcm5f9001er6as07ve44d7",
 "edge": -0.017762,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T00:06:58.653Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.27,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000733.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T00:06:58.653Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC28222…0746
28222435a73f1a42b0d28a71f21e515b553394fcaae83a78a35a56d489ce0746
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxcm5f9001er6as07ve44d7",
 "edge": -0.017762,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T00:06:58.653Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.27,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000733.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-07 00:06Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-07 00:06Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.27
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000733.v3

1X2 · HOME · 40.7% · confidence 73 · reason: Market price update
פגיעה
Fair price
2.46
Market price
2.35
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
0.2 percentage points
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTCc0c0a…78ca
c0c0ae63a7bde7635693648281812be4c46bc6d8167aec48068cf131881078ca
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1tlsrv001pr62bdbpm3yr8",
 "edge": 0.002428,
 "fairOdds": 2.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.406734,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000733.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC36b28…249d
36b287d367353c3ee26b4c752b1ce41c3d26ca97b7feea2fbf755caa5702249d
{
 "confidenceScore": 73,
 "dataQualityScore": 34,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1tlsrv001pr62bdbpm3yr8",
 "edge": 0.002428,
 "fairOdds": 2.46,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynofk02hljv0454i0hr20",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.406734,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000733.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000733.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
HOME 40.7% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 32.4%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 03:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 03:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H6_12
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
2.35
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.