PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000734

MQ-000734

Hoffenheim v Hamburg · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 61.8% · confidence 87

בוטל

Fair price: 1.62
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 4.9 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC5bccf…27fa

5bccf35d9fef535924a84c55030d1239657f417c6b107d41a0945890410327fa

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto0uk006yr60ggvea8whi",
 "edge": -0.049463,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC4f0ad…d306

4f0ad2b0ef0b8cd4c1f219a75fb8e2777165de805b109eb8e78cea8f6eb7d306

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto0uk006yr60ggvea8whi",
 "edge": -0.049463,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 61.8% · DRAW 23.0% · AWAY 15.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000734

1X2 · HOME · 58.0% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.72
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 8.7 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC4df02…7407

4df0247150ac9cadf7f417ba3f5949af04aa29843c4ffb9a877bd4d63f217407

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw2lu6002kr605gk1kgzg2",
 "edge": -0.086611,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC8d9c3…3866

8d9c37934821c1a5f676ce6af905a228e7ca1e54d4739bce2b97ff3a343b3866

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw2lu6002kr605gk1kgzg2",
 "edge": -0.086611,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.0% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 16.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000734.v2

1X2 · HOME · 61.8% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.62
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 4.9 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC3cb07…bfdc

3cb07bd1735058a56f2a2cdc49418895038461bd0aa966b93d7112dbfa0abfdc

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfa0i0002mr68kv3dodstv",
 "edge": -0.04899,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCf4234…59bc

f4234eff5a45647e6b7fd8a1797462974230d7db99aa9f8a10961d54d17f59bc

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfa0i0002mr68kv3dodstv",
 "edge": -0.04899,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 61.8% · DRAW 23.0% · AWAY 15.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000734.v3

1X2 · HOME · 58.0% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.72
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 8.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC6ed42…c192

6ed427ca0f1ede46da151da0fb946ec736ff47be40fc71a44b7ab0de97b4c192

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbqtkr003yr6l88f5pt0fx",
 "edge": -0.086169,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCbd56d…1f53

bd56d2121781559a2bce75740b8d610494425fcd77b4ad6444d86de74c2a1f53

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbqtkr003yr6l88f5pt0fx",
 "edge": -0.086169,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.0% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 16.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000734.v4

1X2 · HOME · 61.8% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.62
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 4.9 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC254af…1fe2

254af8ff2fd4eeb9ba9f8233f074ee195495393cba5e452e0fd6565b0e801fe2

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzocx4j0052r6da3pea5oib",
 "edge": -0.049277,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC24112…7a89

24112dfeb1495763a4f2217d5b2fe53b83d2db73f6b7914387c9deb2ee927a89

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzocx4j0052r6da3pea5oib",
 "edge": -0.049277,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 61.8% · DRAW 23.0% · AWAY 15.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000734.v5

1X2 · HOME · 58.0% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 1.72
Market price: 1.42
Probability gap: 8.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC24edc…93de

24edcb0c1ef1991db970d25bf3730cec7ad9d3da413c8a196d0d5ca9d20b93de

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01cv43004or60xzmwwbhco",
 "edge": -0.086169,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC0be2d…1491

0be2d0cf088e327c38d8f3df775fcdc8fd0377a70996c715ef599bf20aa81491

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01cv43004or60xzmwwbhco",
 "edge": -0.086169,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.42,
 "modelProbability": 0.580433,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000734.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000734.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.0% · DRAW 25.7% · AWAY 16.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.42
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.