PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000735

MQ-000735

Hoffenheim v Hamburg · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 65.9% · confidence 87

בוטל

Fair price: 1.52
Market price: 1.38
Probability gap: 2.5 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC75872…4739

75872e250f96110aed09267478a79aae383cfaa225c90c190e023cfb88404739

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto0uk006yr60ggvea8whi",
 "edge": -0.024846,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.65864,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC9ada5…9b24

9ada5a90f0e067d754edff8b585976be52e0b9306f4b57ce04477257b4ce9b24

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto0uk006yr60ggvea8whi",
 "edge": -0.024846,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.65864,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 65.9% · UNDER 34.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.38
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000735

OU25 · OVER · 64.8% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.54
Market price: 1.38
Probability gap: 3.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC4b5a8…e58d

4b5a830b5f6d3f3ab402d76bc76bd351aa3d7cdbb5e5c02d2fc330f6e4ffe58d

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw2lu6002kr605gk1kgzg2",
 "edge": -0.0357,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.647786,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC6d489…f3ab

6d4891aee7aa187764bd72b30f5ca4b9f2b2dee968fe6e49a150a4e8e5b6f3ab

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw2lu6002kr605gk1kgzg2",
 "edge": -0.0357,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.647786,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 64.8% · UNDER 35.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.38
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000735.v2

OU25 · OVER · 65.9% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.52
Market price: 1.38
Probability gap: 2.5 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC927f6…e7f1

927f6c7436d2833c297e6dfba209e71438551c5077e29b72c9b5c177ff4ee7f1

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfa0i0002mr68kv3dodstv",
 "edge": -0.024826,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.65866,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCda846…1561

da8463c5dd8aca81d284d484ceb0c331336ae7661fa4b1a071908ed735101561

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfa0i0002mr68kv3dodstv",
 "edge": -0.024826,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.65866,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 65.9% · UNDER 34.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.38
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000735.v3

OU25 · OVER · 64.8% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.54
Market price: 1.38
Probability gap: 3.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC67d74…684e

67d7451dd61bb6bf106aa7b584187663b18f83ba0e522761d5cd8ef2cc07684e

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbqtkr003yr6l88f5pt0fx",
 "edge": -0.035677,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.647809,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCa553c…defe

a553c831c081feac4b252a9e3abf887b73db8e441c7bee9f65877d4214dcdefe

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbqtkr003yr6l88f5pt0fx",
 "edge": -0.035677,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.647809,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 64.8% · UNDER 35.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.38
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000735.v4

OU25 · OVER · 65.9% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.52
Market price: 1.40
Probability gap: 1.7 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCc3bff…fe0a

c3bff00783d770cda02fb9796d1c8ff2323a8d05aa20c699d3a8d7053a76fe0a

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzocx4j0052r6da3pea5oib",
 "edge": -0.017251,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.4,
 "modelProbability": 0.658675,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC702eb…12df

702eb68c0cbabd7523ad01099a51f97b843e0738b541f8f882f7f8800b3b12df

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzocx4j0052r6da3pea5oib",
 "edge": -0.017251,
 "fairOdds": 1.52,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.4,
 "modelProbability": 0.658675,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 65.9% · UNDER 34.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.40
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000735.v5

OU25 · OVER · 64.8% · confidence 85 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.54
Market price: 1.38
Probability gap: 3.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTCe83dd…ae29

e83dd46289151045bc9b9f0ee4da40b136b1c619badec6b3c19af0b22025ae29

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01cv43004or60xzmwwbhco",
 "edge": -0.035564,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.647922,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC6ba34…d7dd

6ba34d110367052bf964d1466e69f2c0597b11d044b7d6423898ccf6abacd7dd

{
 "confidenceScore": 85,
 "dataQualityScore": 68,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01cv43004or60xzmwwbhco",
 "edge": -0.035564,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynojq02hrjv04a65r24rj",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.38,
 "modelProbability": 0.647922,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000735.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000735.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 64.8% · UNDER 35.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.38
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.