PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000738

MQ-000738

Augsburg v Bayern Munich · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 73.3% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 1.36
Market price: 1.15
Probability gap: 9.3 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC4a98b…6727

4a98bafe238c004f6329ed4025f4ed60768700b87d052b0fb1c56ddcf47b6727

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto7a0008yr60gigkego3l",
 "edge": -0.092838,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.733183,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCc2d73…0738

c2d73378befcd9cbc24fa1a6b28db7df07a4021e27309740ebfb4afc28380738

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto7a0008yr60gigkego3l",
 "edge": -0.092838,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.733183,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 73.3% · UNDER 26.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.15
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000738

OU25 · OVER · 74.7% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.34
Market price: 1.15
Probability gap: 7.9 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC22caf…d1c4

22cafa12e244ea597e07016d1dbd5e071ca3b023fd2127750089607650a3d1c4

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01ci1m0026r60xzldycj42",
 "edge": -0.079052,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.746969,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC30e48…29ae

30e48c03ce0f905a8f727f384922a6bf66d09f9ffed7861fc24ab2bbf28129ae

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01ci1m0026r60xzldycj42",
 "edge": -0.079052,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.746969,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 74.7% · UNDER 25.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.15
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000738.v2

OU25 · OVER · 73.3% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.36
Market price: 1.15
Probability gap: 9.4 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTCfd1dc…77f0

fd1dc513a26081036e922e53dc45315222adf74dadfb24e96c499d7b618a77f0

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qynob002nr6a3lydrgwx4",
 "edge": -0.093623,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.732923,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC2bc23…0cf7

2bc2323c0c54e6557606c29e250b71d94e442c70de5d87533d5c5bcaceae0cf7

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qynob002nr6a3lydrgwx4",
 "edge": -0.093623,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.732923,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 73.3% · UNDER 26.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.15
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000738.v3

OU25 · OVER · 74.7% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.34
Market price: 1.15
Probability gap: 8 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC62064…f0d8

620646fd4162d21790c0434cf8317bd5272d3a5fcd86bf78b9a737005a42f0d8

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13w8eb003cr6j3myz0v82h",
 "edge": -0.079655,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.746891,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCeba4a…4b11

eba4ad4bca873f37f4992b73933f5993b4f05a4f20f8bca9c624be175e444b11

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13w8eb003cr6j3myz0v82h",
 "edge": -0.079655,
 "fairOdds": 1.34,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.15,
 "modelProbability": 0.746891,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 74.7% · UNDER 25.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.15
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000738.v4

OU25 · OVER · 73.3% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.36
Market price: 1.14
Probability gap: 10 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC550bf…64d9

550bf9720228097e5eabb10ec8d441a4f1432c16d4e0a9222c1631353fd564d9

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26e510002or65x74bvm6hv",
 "edge": -0.099904,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.14,
 "modelProbability": 0.732695,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC72482…6e70

724826f9143c7982fc87f371fcb53bfd65ef12d0d5dc09ec5e92576f6ec76e70

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26e510002or65x74bvm6hv",
 "edge": -0.099904,
 "fairOdds": 1.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.14,
 "modelProbability": 0.732695,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000738.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000738.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 73.3% · UNDER 26.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.14
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.