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PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000739

MQ-000739

Augsburg v Bayern Munich · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

BTTS · YES · 67.8% · confidence 88
בוטל
Fair price
1.48
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published
Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC304e5…1c0a
304e56c9c3c4a4ef08e6af6c3453fa01b129c2f47443752bc7aea030a9111c0a
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto7a0008yr60gigkego3l",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.677931,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC0856f…7255
0856f65c80f132ea611e9fec46756fb786faa9896fd3f7da31b65a6898207255
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwto7a0008yr60gigkego3l",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.677931,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 67.8% · NO 32.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H72_PLUS
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000739

BTTS · YES · 66.4% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.51
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published
Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC19982…7792
19982d35f9cbd3696fa5910ad7f57315243a0ce3820a9b7bc1d58b9fff5d7792
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01ci1m0026r60xzldycj42",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.664392,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC8ead2…e727
8ead2ac5eb549040d0e6ce11772694f5f8d028fb5b5f13c5028c6ccdd93ee727
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01ci1m0026r60xzldycj42",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.664392,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 66.4% · NO 33.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000739.v2

BTTS · YES · 67.8% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.47
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTCff0fd…b025
ff0fd912759d782dd0536e92f1e8df1aa0dd7192bbba01f88950eb517b3ab025
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qynob002nr6a3lydrgwx4",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.678134,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC7365b…37cc
7365bd44f26c6ab0018a3db1bf6745bcf022c1a4eeaf14c0ed61c13fce4e37cc
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qynob002nr6a3lydrgwx4",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.678134,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 67.8% · NO 32.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H24_48
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000739.v3

BTTS · YES · 66.4% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh
בוטל
Fair price
1.50
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published
Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTCaf3d5…096e
af3d5f19750349d36e3e1aff9023497b9db1f9775fface9a7cff9e335649096e
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13w8eb003cr6j3myz0v82h",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.664453,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTCfbe7e…594c
fbe7e5148977aecb4cc40b4a6a3925d039e8d4fac68a265b80930ddd4ab0594c
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13w8eb003cr6j3myz0v82h",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.664453,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 66.4% · NO 33.6%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H12_24
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000739.v4

BTTS · YES · 67.8% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh
פגיעה
Fair price
1.47
Market price
—
Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
No market price to compare against.
Generated
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published
Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked
Sat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts
0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC552dc…f213
552dcad178a757e672eab72426728c5b5c4ad58f5ee983691dd171e32f01f213
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26e510002or65x74bvm6hv",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.678239,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}
Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 11:32 UTC31cec…16b4
31cecf2c6013d31cc192aec33d5f071d02fb456661a12885c2dfeefbddf716b4
{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26e510002or65x74bvm6hv",
 "edge": null,
 "fairOdds": 1.47,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynonx02hxjv04q81i1v1g",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "BTTS",
 "marketOdds": null,
 "modelProbability": 0.678239,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000739.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000739.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:32:04.980Z",
 "selection": "YES"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector
YES 67.8% · NO 32.2%
Model version
ens_v0.3
Feature version
f0.3
Calibration version
iso_v2
Calibration scope
league
Feature snapshot taken
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff
2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage
ADVANCED
Lead time
H1_6
Analysis standard
FULL
Price at lock
not recorded for this prediction
Sources consulted
not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version
not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication
not yet recorded by this product
What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.