PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000740

MQ-000740

Sunderland v Brighton · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 14:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 89

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 2.35
Probability gap: 7.4 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTCd29a1…8e05

d29a1d311ead828526fccce44713bf08cdf211f36d22af59837cedb713d68e05

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtoghi00ayr60gtcznanfl",
 "edge": 0.074172,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCda934…b644

da93412ed583a617d4fed7859a5604159036ab7c65f8965f4b230fafb9fdb644

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtoghi00ayr60gtcznanfl",
 "edge": 0.074172,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.35,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.35
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000740

1X2 · AWAY · 50.2% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 2.32
Probability gap: 9.2 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC4c39d…fc9d

4c39d335a30708a95dbcf0a614fef7c75e0211cd7988a21640243fc0d22efc9d

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kwjq003yr6w03e2h7n54",
 "edge": 0.091659,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.32,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCc817f…290b

c817f2301c5fc17168c8d071b565ce7bfad405dd08d1b251368ec2136e8d290b

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kwjq003yr6w03e2h7n54",
 "edge": 0.091659,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.32,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.9% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.32
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000740.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 2.31
Probability gap: 6.6 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC8064a…fef8

8064a850e0bf1edad999bb63b7e27225153b42098d36ad62fd0c5ce3a80cfef8

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qz65t005er6a3l0t29wuq",
 "edge": 0.06621,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCbb6f6…1b87

bb6f6893aabef99a5d1815f0e97400d37da4d02658c193a10defee43fe5a1b87

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qz65t005er6a3l0t29wuq",
 "edge": 0.06621,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.31
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000740.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 50.2% · confidence 87 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 2.31
Probability gap: 9 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC916c9…215d

916c93d9942241e1ffe29ace796a324261afd17cf5e69f2e529fb3834aa4215d

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13wse1006qr6j3iq93pmes",
 "edge": 0.089753,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC7c244…1b21

7c244fe304a7e3b3932eae6c5143b0d9d4b97074733a49c300a3577c17da1b21

{
 "confidenceScore": 87,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13wse1006qr6j3iq93pmes",
 "edge": 0.089753,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.31,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.9% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.31
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000740.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 2.32
Probability gap: 6.7 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC48eff…8b73

48eff99a9a845350bc341973d90da780805a1543aa6c512ebb6d3ca768cf8b73

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ervr006nr65xsrge5ywk",
 "edge": 0.066692,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.32,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC34298…8a36

3429890c2dd2404f8b4e0703d2f186e335026f4a12d003c46d51263e20368a36

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ervr006nr65xsrge5ywk",
 "edge": 0.066692,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.32,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.32
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000740.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 50.5% · confidence 88 · reason: Official lineup

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.98
Market price: 2.32
Probability gap: 9.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC4258f…eb37

4258fb38ff230dfad1ee36b28729d048a1071ebb34e24f4d1c3b2c69e7e5eb37

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2apwbd00ckr67s2jcalwpy",
 "edge": 0.093717,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.32,
 "modelProbability": 0.505302,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC1aa81…d364

1aa810ac3bdeb03343d8682b049b37e3b90201752f7c3f9307d338befc54d364

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2apwbd00ckr67s2jcalwpy",
 "edge": 0.093717,
 "fairOdds": 1.98,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmjo02f5jv0437w7x301",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.32,
 "modelProbability": 0.505302,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000740.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000740.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.5% · DRAW 28.0% · AWAY 50.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 11:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 11:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.32
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.