PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000743

MQ-000743

Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 14:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.71
Probability gap: 15.8 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC95b91…812c

95b91dcb7d91629ac4b048fe2e481d0ea4901e879069ea1af877fc9a1c2f812c

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtonno00cyr60grq0zyy43",
 "edge": -0.158264,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.71,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC40f57…dfed

40f574cde696017ed1e3fa01d66e855403ab31a25756dbebd61058cdb906dfed

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtonno00cyr60grq0zyy43",
 "edge": -0.158264,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.71,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.71
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000743

1X2 · HOME · 38.6% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.59
Market price: 1.70
Probability gap: 17.3 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC4ea7c…090d

4ea7c56d7ec7ae2085eaa75720c21ca4eb862b6f430d3a063fb20f374822090d

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuy2ewlp002gr6ludepwtw8i",
 "edge": -0.173054,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCabe40…efe5

abe40170a2486e916c7ae78c5e0e55785ad1438449fa35a93af194749e0aefe5

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuy2ewlp002gr6ludepwtw8i",
 "edge": -0.173054,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.6% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 34.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 12:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 12:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.70
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000743.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 38.0% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.63
Market price: 4.45
Probability gap: 16.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCd865e…a1d6

d865e8aa7f35bc164171026bafb824c58d7384f23e2cd1f9c681e23b550ea1d6

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfad8r005kr68kf3loc6qj",
 "edge": 0.166156,
 "fairOdds": 2.63,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.45,
 "modelProbability": 0.380077,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC843fc…48fd

843fc51d459ddb59a13821efc23c21cf91855ae5f693c8027a2d4b3e8ae348fd

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfad8r005kr68kf3loc6qj",
 "edge": 0.166156,
 "fairOdds": 2.63,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.45,
 "modelProbability": 0.380077,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 33.9% · DRAW 28.0% · AWAY 38.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.45
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000743.v3

1X2 · HOME · 38.6% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.59
Market price: 1.70
Probability gap: 17.2 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTCb32da…2b33

b32dad60fedefd5a3520b8987f982e545f398e5c283276a369d895e7e0722b33

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbreo1005yr6l8ptzpmcd3",
 "edge": -0.172481,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC58a4e…1f4b

58a4e2a7df80956d95549c43d879a5bc86ede9ce5cecc4a66193156c79cd1f4b

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbreo1005yr6l8ptzpmcd3",
 "edge": -0.172481,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.6% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 34.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.70
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000743.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 38.6% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.59
Market price: 4.48
Probability gap: 17.4 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 12:11 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 12:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 12:11 UTCb59b1…cea9

b59b1ffecc1db5add45779f7ad0bdf223e0a85860a03b1af553fa4163fb2cea9

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzhxt4u0022r6d4iklpe6cr",
 "edge": 0.173919,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T12:11:16.019Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.386476,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T12:11:16.019Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCee35c…4cff

ee35c078008e0410865e8f1c48f2f56b555cd3dba219b04c781dcad0d7cf4cff

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzhxt4u0022r6d4iklpe6cr",
 "edge": 0.173919,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T12:11:16.019Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.386476,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 32.8% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 38.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 12:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 12:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.48
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000743.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 40.1% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.50
Market price: 4.50
Probability gap: 18.9 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCce122…737a

ce122fdfc4c47aeaab857b39b6e4deb047f286acb928543924463d664f11737a

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzod6ju007ur6da53srescj",
 "edge": 0.189271,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC1c35e…f530

1c35ee26e6b5bfab1ed11a275bd0e34f2b6f1b2f391e71b8b189ee3b2ce8f530

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzod6ju007ur6da53srescj",
 "edge": 0.189271,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000743.v6

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.70
Probability gap: 16.2 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTCc3a5c…25c0

c3a5c48857d584f7c566595f29abb93131f39039d867613b106601b3bb1b25c0

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kzrw004qr6w0w36bktiy",
 "edge": -0.162097,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCb1261…9b62

b126167bed65a0639bc1f2aed43b49bce1cadfc04a787b380473f6a911f99b62

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kzrw004qr6w0w36bktiy",
 "edge": -0.162097,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.7,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.70
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 8 · previous MQ-000743.v7

1X2 · HOME · 38.6% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.59
Market price: 1.69
Probability gap: 17.8 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC10d5c…ea7f

10d5cda5335fe838088e2aab78ee67f16cca7129772f9a959cdd86a65ecdea7f

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qzb4l0067r6a380gxq3cv",
 "edge": -0.178034,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.69,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC333af…5190

333af982f7ae30d82e7840b2855be40325097c8f5a2b2bd8b155ee44a57c5190

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0qzb4l0067r6a380gxq3cv",
 "edge": -0.178034,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.69,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v8",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v7",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.6% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 34.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.69
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 9 · previous MQ-000743.v8

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.69
Probability gap: 16.5 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC243e2…adf7

243e24a58aaa56a3d61e2c39ea8324bba976f8f927f090b23a1b68399f80adf7

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13ww9x007jr6j3ajf4hopy",
 "edge": -0.165205,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.69,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCdb60c…675d

db60cc6b356208148974003d00da8e5ff786ff653767308dc5b41ff6d05b675d

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13ww9x007jr6j3ajf4hopy",
 "edge": -0.165205,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.69,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v9",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v8",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.69
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 10 · previous MQ-000743.v9

1X2 · HOME · 38.6% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.59
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 14.6 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC3e8de…06c1

3e8de2be4d33a3e48b8866733fe5c8b38192fa22ef1c4a12e7eff02edbc806c1

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ex1l007gr65xdwok82ik",
 "edge": -0.145973,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC5d40a…cabb

5d40a0178110063abc2ae354dd4b4ef307f9240492f14053690ba0fed2accabb

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ex1l007gr65xdwok82ik",
 "edge": -0.145973,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.386193,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v10",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v9",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 38.6% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 34.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 11 · previous MQ-000743.v10

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 75 · reason: Official lineup

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 1.79
Probability gap: 13.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 11:08 UTC08d28…4f9a

08d28c2642f2907190a65ba4626277d7398ab8b6f1dad4d35da12832d6854f9a

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2apfl300aur67sdsajtvnd",
 "edge": -0.134273,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC3506d…a0df

3506d7badc8a16f6baf2b886c6dc523d72a25120bb3bde5de828555dcfb3a0df

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2apfl300aur67sdsajtvnd",
 "edge": -0.134273,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T11:08:25.865Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.79,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000743.v11",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000743.v10",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 11:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 11:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.79
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.