PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000744

MQ-000744

Chelsea v Bournemouth · Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 14:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 57.3% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 1.75
Market price: 1.48
Probability gap: 6.1 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC12f8d…69b8

12f8df6f87d9291b280470e137d04466346e9ae73d9ab48d19a4d44ea98d69b8

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtonno00cyr60grq0zyy43",
 "edge": -0.060781,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.572882,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCc2e40…6e42

c2e400b0c14c9cfce16ec9a59f16d2f653db03d5896ebdf491d4efdacef26e42

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtonno00cyr60grq0zyy43",
 "edge": -0.060781,
 "fairOdds": 1.75,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.572882,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 57.3% · UNDER 42.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.48
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000744

OU25 · OVER · 56.3% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.78
Market price: 1.48
Probability gap: 7.1 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 12:11 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 12:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 12:11 UTCecf25…5519

ecf2519481b656e2e2f4c14e30091db80137612c7177dbc64fdef85132145519

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzhxt4u0022r6d4iklpe6cr",
 "edge": -0.071053,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T12:11:16.019Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.56261,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T12:11:16.019Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC98efe…912e

98efeb913467adbb248321e05beebcd69dbc3054534a773d6f81709725ac912e

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzhxt4u0022r6d4iklpe6cr",
 "edge": -0.071053,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T12:11:16.019Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.56261,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 56.3% · UNDER 43.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 12:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 12:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.48
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000744.v2

OU25 · OVER · 55.0% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.82
Market price: 1.48
Probability gap: 8.4 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCf0cf2…aa8c

f0cf2406972435baa7dcec22ba61813ca3489039109fd6e2f0c8fc583e93aa8c

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzod6ju007ur6da53srescj",
 "edge": -0.083706,
 "fairOdds": 1.82,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.549957,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC1a280…10a1

1a28085c9f62832f6525160576ed44c07be4df1f07b8ec9a8d8d4d48950b10a1

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzod6ju007ur6da53srescj",
 "edge": -0.083706,
 "fairOdds": 1.82,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.549957,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 55.0% · UNDER 45.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.48
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000744.v3

OU25 · OVER · 56.0% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.78
Market price: 1.48
Probability gap: 7.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTCd2284…b870

d2284f4444827055d3269a23f0cff8ff34526412f4ced2613e82cf6f54bfb870

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kzrw004qr6w0w36bktiy",
 "edge": -0.073383,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.56028,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC56708…00a8

56708ee3a1507b99a5f41f86ba936ec8980b36a2c51edfcdbde887fd528c00a8

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07kzrw004qr6w0w36bktiy",
 "edge": -0.073383,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.48,
 "modelProbability": 0.56028,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 56.0% · UNDER 44.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.48
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000744.v4

OU25 · OVER · 56.4% · confidence 75 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.77
Market price: 1.59
Probability gap: 3.4 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTCa75c4…7026

a75c4da13bf8af777de6f5390dff84b75a7d7f609d39b2ee074a7631e82d7026

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ex1l007gr65xdwok82ik",
 "edge": -0.03403,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.59,
 "modelProbability": 0.564455,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCe7673…0e0e

e7673c5235520a51a03fcba81d3960d0f588efbd43fc7b5723ade2f873d20e0e

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26ex1l007gr65xdwok82ik",
 "edge": -0.03403,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynmo402fbjv04uzpmo94t",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.59,
 "modelProbability": 0.564455,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000744.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000744.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 56.4% · UNDER 43.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.59
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.