PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000752

MQ-000752

Alaves v Ath Madrid · La Liga · Sat 10 Oct · 14:15 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 74

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 4.20
Probability gap: 17.2 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 15:15 UTCbaed0…e8e7

baed091fd337dcd05b74e24ad97cacf09acbd8a131f46eda931c2ea0fd31e8e7

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtp88y00isr60g4oofpp43",
 "edge": 0.171849,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC77561…fbb3

77561025ea6c0f06f5b14b23547902b9dd60238ed4420dd789490a7da7dffbb3

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuwtp88y00isr60g4oofpp43",
 "edge": 0.171849,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T15:15:58.841Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.2,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.20
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000752

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 1.81
Probability gap: 14.9 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC08778…56ce

08778b6b81c7ba5ae2213c4557bbdffef4c5bc1e1c7cf14b9a3b6b7f3a5b56ce

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuylutzz0032r6wi8g69l94h",
 "edge": -0.148928,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000752",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTCc1552…4fbd

c1552341aee79f27340f970749e3ce36a136d60a5fe30daa3a38f77327ea4fbd

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuylutzz0032r6wi8g69l94h",
 "edge": -0.148928,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000752",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 21:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 21:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.81
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000752.v2

1X2 · HOME · 39.8% · confidence 74 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.51
Market price: 4.33
Probability gap: 17.8 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC9affd…caf4

9affd9dd93b6d6c8d53700cc187bb2d9ae1f85439d7ce02ee14cfa513a67caf4

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbsbke007kr6l8lqhj8lqu",
 "edge": 0.177779,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000752.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC01945…f4f1

0194587fb389388c38ade64d86595f775265c500a43063fbff085aac3a05f4f1

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbsbke007kr6l8lqhj8lqu",
 "edge": 0.177779,
 "fairOdds": 2.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 4.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.397893,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000752.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 4.33
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000752.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 38.6% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.59
Market price: 1.80
Probability gap: 14.1 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC95d2b…da93

95d2b12bb3b69529c1db98a0f79a81d814ebb53b5829224d856015ce23c0da93

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzodil600aor6daixpsrs4j",
 "edge": -0.141472,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.8,
 "modelProbability": 0.386476,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000752.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 12:02 UTC77832…6a1e

778327db2eacd7f1cf8895ebda12f36471dcf135bf89108810bbb9ae64fa6a1e

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzodil600aor6daixpsrs4j",
 "edge": -0.141472,
 "fairOdds": 2.59,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynndt02g7jv049xd0h3sr",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.8,
 "modelProbability": 0.386476,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000752.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000752.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:02:05.190Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 32.8% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 38.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.80
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.