MQ-000777
Ironi Kiryat Shmona v Hapoel Tel Aviv · Israeli Premier League · Sat 10 Oct · 16:15 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 1.53
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 18:06 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 18:06 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 14:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 18:06 UTC54bba…5b64
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwzsdpg00f2r6qbyliwdv1b",
"edge": -0.054872,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurym2z802egjv04bpdn3t7d",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T18:06:38.941Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.53,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000777",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T18:06:38.941Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 14:02 UTC1b344…1a02
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuwzsdpg00f2r6qbyliwdv1b",
"edge": -0.054872,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurym2z802egjv04bpdn3t7d",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T18:06:38.941Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.53,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000777",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T14:02:00.916Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 18:06Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 18:06Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.53
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000777
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 1.36
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 03:09 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 03:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 14:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 03:09 UTC8f44a…bf67
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyylpic0044r6wtbc8pcf75",
"edge": -0.130161,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurym2z802egjv04bpdn3t7d",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T03:09:33.887Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.36,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000777.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000777",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T03:09:33.887Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 14:02 UTCd237b…e6e6
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyylpic0044r6wtbc8pcf75",
"edge": -0.130161,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurym2z802egjv04bpdn3t7d",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T03:09:33.887Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.36,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000777.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000777",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T14:02:00.916Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 03:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 03:09Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.36
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000777.v2
- Fair price
- 1.89
- Market price
- 1.48
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 14:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC3d87f…fe2f
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzodw6300c6r6da7f5f91e6",
"edge": -0.078024,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurym2z802egjv04bpdn3t7d",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.48,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000777.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000777.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 14:02 UTC8166b…3ec4
{
"confidenceScore": 80,
"dataQualityScore": 55,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzodw6300c6r6da7f5f91e6",
"edge": -0.078024,
"fairOdds": 1.89,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurym2z802egjv04bpdn3t7d",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.48,
"modelProbability": 0.528559,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000777.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000777.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T14:02:00.916Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- global
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 15:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 15:10Z
- Data coverage
- STANDARD
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.48
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.