MQ-000787
Napoli v Frosinone · Serie A · Sat 10 Oct · 18:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 14.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC28f6c…ce4f
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmux6j92e005cr6diuxnnkhzl",
"edge": -0.147823,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTCb9796…b249
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmux6j92e005cr6diuxnnkhzl",
"edge": -0.147823,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000787
- Fair price
- 2.07
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 17.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC7923f…ad61
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw4dlh00a6r605dpbkw5yj",
"edge": -0.177421,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTCf195e…b070
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw4dlh00a6r605dpbkw5yj",
"edge": -0.177421,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 09:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 09:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000787.v2
- Fair price
- 1.96
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 14.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCb79ec…5c82
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfbik500b8r68ku18i0i1l",
"edge": -0.146745,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC77025…6834
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfbik500b8r68ku18i0i1l",
"edge": -0.146745,
"fairOdds": 1.96,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.510212,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 51.0% · DRAW 28.5% · AWAY 20.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 4 · previous MQ-000787.v3
- Fair price
- 2.07
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 17.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC05f86…65fc
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbujxk00cyr6l896thcalo",
"edge": -0.177274,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC20aa7…c799
{
"confidenceScore": 75,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbujxk00cyr6l896thcalo",
"edge": -0.177274,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v4",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v3",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 09:16Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 09:16Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 5 · previous MQ-000787.v4
- Fair price
- 2.27
- Market price
- 1.44
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 21.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC3b788…8a3e
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoem2t00gor6davc2po9kq",
"edge": -0.217627,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC04c92…4d94
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoem2t00gor6davc2po9kq",
"edge": -0.217627,
"fairOdds": 2.27,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.44,
"modelProbability": 0.44001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v5",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v4",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 44.0% · DRAW 29.1% · AWAY 26.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 15:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 15:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.44
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 6 · previous MQ-000787.v5
- Fair price
- 2.36
- Market price
- 1.45
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 23.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTCf42f8…4a5e
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01e7la00awr60xw4d2ulk1",
"edge": -0.231419,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v6",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v5",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC8c9b1…8954
{
"confidenceScore": 76,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01e7la00awr60xw4d2ulk1",
"edge": -0.231419,
"fairOdds": 2.36,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.45,
"modelProbability": 0.423896,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v6",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v5",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.45
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 7 · previous MQ-000787.v6
- Fair price
- 2.44
- Market price
- 1.46
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 24.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC073c9…d2da
{
"confidenceScore": 57,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cuiat0089r6uqccpwblvi",
"edge": -0.243043,
"fairOdds": 2.44,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.46,
"modelProbability": 0.409807,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v7",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v6",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTCb7809…6560
{
"confidenceScore": 57,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cuiat0089r6uqccpwblvi",
"edge": -0.243043,
"fairOdds": 2.44,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.46,
"modelProbability": 0.409807,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v7",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v6",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.0% · DRAW 28.2% · AWAY 30.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 12:10Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 12:10Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.46
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 8 · previous MQ-000787.v7
- Fair price
- 2.44
- Market price
- 1.51
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 22.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC4fdb4…760b
{
"confidenceScore": 57,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2je0pa003zr6xic2edtcfi",
"edge": -0.221405,
"fairOdds": 2.44,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.51,
"modelProbability": 0.409807,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v8",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v7",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC2a650…1246
{
"confidenceScore": 57,
"dataQualityScore": 49,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2je0pa003zr6xic2edtcfi",
"edge": -0.221405,
"fairOdds": 2.44,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnyn02h1jv04bsf0asjk",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.51,
"modelProbability": 0.409807,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000787.v8",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000787.v7",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 41.0% · DRAW 28.2% · AWAY 30.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 15:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 15:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.51
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.