MQ-000791
Lorient v Paris FC · Ligue 1 · Sat 10 Oct · 18:45 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.66
- Market price
- 2.27
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTCec7ad…6209
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmux6jktv0082r6diqx5qzef5",
"edge": -0.039404,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynp8n02injv04vhou3h9u",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.27,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000791",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTCc9550…6309
{
"confidenceScore": 89,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmux6jktv0082r6diqx5qzef5",
"edge": -0.039404,
"fairOdds": 2.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynp8n02injv04vhou3h9u",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.27,
"modelProbability": 0.376575,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000791",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.27
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000791
- Fair price
- 2.73
- Market price
- 3.33
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 8.1 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC653c7…f864
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n2ldd005ur6f07kt1pi6y",
"edge": 0.080908,
"fairOdds": 2.73,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynp8n02injv04vhou3h9u",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.33,
"modelProbability": 0.366313,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000791.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000791",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC6cfa5…691c
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n2ldd005ur6f07kt1pi6y",
"edge": 0.080908,
"fairOdds": 2.73,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynp8n02injv04vhou3h9u",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.33,
"modelProbability": 0.366313,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000791.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000791",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 36.6% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 36.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 00:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 00:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.33
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000791.v2
- Fair price
- 2.73
- Market price
- 3.60
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 10.2 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC07e0e…5427
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv26gj7100fcr65xlu6g0mnt",
"edge": 0.102292,
"fairOdds": 2.73,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynp8n02injv04vhou3h9u",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.6,
"modelProbability": 0.366313,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000791.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000791.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC4688d…9867
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 79,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv26gj7100fcr65xlu6g0mnt",
"edge": 0.102292,
"fairOdds": 2.73,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynp8n02injv04vhou3h9u",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 3.6,
"modelProbability": 0.366313,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000791.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000791.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 36.6% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 36.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 09:11Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 09:11Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H6_12
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 3.60
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.