PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000794

MQ-000794

Paris SG v Le Mans · Ligue 1 · Sat 10 Oct · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 68.9% · confidence 74

בוטל

Fair price: 1.45
Market price: 1.07
Probability gap: 19.9 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTCc9b11…1aad

c9b11692e8516a638773c05394016405b015f5c3334462c14ad45091f4e71aad

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6js3g009qr6dik5rjdiqv",
 "edge": -0.19921,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.689202,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC6eb0a…70a0

6eb0ab8f04684975500b064d8cf9cfffc71d3ad8f675b8e9fd55adffc4ca70a0

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6js3g009qr6dik5rjdiqv",
 "edge": -0.19921,
 "fairOdds": 1.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.689202,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 68.9% · DRAW 21.5% · AWAY 9.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 21:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 21:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.07
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000794

1X2 · HOME · 64.8% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.54
Market price: 1.07
Probability gap: 24.1 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC2df5e…7f43

2df5ed2a2e8163e11dc682e1a9435d94fd685812752500e1c2a5eb6d7d6e7f43

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuys4vwy005ur62n9z8kji1c",
 "edge": -0.240932,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.64791,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000794",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC0470a…d425

0470a3df16c2b36eddd488431dd49c47bc9005df9ab23ad86d097427daead425

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuys4vwy005ur62n9z8kji1c",
 "edge": -0.240932,
 "fairOdds": 1.54,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.64791,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000794",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 64.8% · DRAW 23.5% · AWAY 11.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 00:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 00:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.07
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000794.v2

1X2 · HOME · 61.8% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.62
Market price: 1.07
Probability gap: 27.1 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC9a02a…6668

9a02a1e7eb1f08a0cb6c7bea82902ea37d9c94971f9624d4b9af5f99170e6668

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07m17k00a4r6w0d5ochuka",
 "edge": -0.270855,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000794.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC7e0df…a4b1

7e0dfdf2f8e64a550531c9c15959181c0fceb2972bc99a1a57ff6a403551a4b1

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07m17k00a4r6w0d5ochuka",
 "edge": -0.270855,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.07,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000794.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 61.8% · DRAW 23.0% · AWAY 15.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.07
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000794.v3

1X2 · HOME · 61.8% · confidence 76 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.62
Market price: 1.10
Probability gap: 24.5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTCd2546…34ca

d25462c855abd37c7e0d727a8ae239211e3c6efcb85c7effd6edf427643934ca

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cubmp007ar6uq6w0866m4",
 "edge": -0.244841,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.1,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000794.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC3045f…e881

3045f10b50befe714e3fc42a41308267433189e500b3e8494771099ad4c0e881

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cubmp007ar6uq6w0866m4",
 "edge": -0.244841,
 "fairOdds": 1.62,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpcy02itjv04j3y1zliw",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.1,
 "modelProbability": 0.617581,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000794.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000794.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 61.8% · DRAW 23.0% · AWAY 15.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.10
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.