PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000795

MQ-000795

Monaco v Toulouse · Ligue 1 · Sat 10 Oct · 18:45 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 1.59
Probability gap: 14.2 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC08294…fc00

08294e40b20723aaa9b422f6e976cd825aa5f2a9c1f45a90eefa68946af5fc00

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6jwds00agr6di4i715sxp",
 "edge": -0.142095,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.59,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC14327…ff5b

14327240a33752fad26b4cfb9e7735597df8821fe9313f9c63c550d4e924ff5b

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6jwds00agr6di4i715sxp",
 "edge": -0.142095,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.59,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 21:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 21:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.59
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000795

1X2 · HOME · 48.2% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.07
Market price: 1.58
Probability gap: 11.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC78c54…2bf9

78c54a241e02c309598ae98556d231f35a0b8ebad47ddd76ce263f2d3ff32bf9

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw4rvl00bwr605sywgrddu",
 "edge": -0.115841,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTCbdc0a…b851

bdc0ae9e4684c0bd093f4260191f98b598f333e5b7dc9788b34ddb1fa32db851

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw4rvl00bwr605sywgrddu",
 "edge": -0.115841,
 "fairOdds": 2.07,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.482266,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.58
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000795.v2

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 1.58
Probability gap: 14.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCb7ae2…6bdc

b7ae2dbe4bad5be96a2832eb70cbc48fc86440f3c4db0777fbe5a38caf276bdc

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfbt3u00d2r68kikxcb33i",
 "edge": -0.145939,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC977e2…f41d

977e206774559fa32e381d6c24ff0fed0755ccfcb967f43ede00e4fc6e09f41d

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfbt3u00d2r68kikxcb33i",
 "edge": -0.145939,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.58
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000795.v3

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.58
Probability gap: 17.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 00:08 UTCba660…3665

ba660705da0ca8773c3fe604e2d95eb3f31cd9209caad2e2c84d9f10feb03665

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuys4z6n006mr62ncfna9vpb",
 "edge": -0.175027,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC2a478…16b9

2a4780ec1887e3341db1c40d8ebdc4dee7b4ca350b1f947cb0d4f064e98616b9

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuys4z6n006mr62ncfna9vpb",
 "edge": -0.175027,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T00:08:06.472Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 00:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 00:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.58
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000795.v4

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 1.58
Probability gap: 14.7 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTCf2c47…59b2

f2c47df672694e3afaed5f5916666896c756804a72de1d14c65d9ec7a39f59b2

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbubak00c6r6l8q79uupy9",
 "edge": -0.146784,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC180f3…0c3b

180f346f572c000b825549c8e74d9ee6b1b56b091a8c0ce22621987707e60c3b

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbubak00c6r6l8q79uupy9",
 "edge": -0.146784,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.58
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000795.v5

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.58
Probability gap: 17.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC69332…633c

69332bc3c2b0303fd85d4c4552e30c77443dd2331448aa337db0284d1e33633c

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoeiae00fwr6dajxfnnkxh",
 "edge": -0.176171,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 16:32 UTCe866f…7a18

e866f58689d10ad3f6a48b80d6f7371248aa9a701e3a2b2f0d175219392b7a18

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzoeiae00fwr6dajxfnnkxh",
 "edge": -0.176171,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynpgz02izjv04735kgiru",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000795.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000795.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T16:32:06.278Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.58
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.