PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000798

MQ-000798

Real Madrid v Villarreal · La Liga · Sat 10 Oct · 19:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 56.4% · confidence 92

בוטל

Fair price: 1.77
Market price: 1.33
Probability gap: 15 percentage points
Generated: Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Published: Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC9c8b4…e4aa

9c8b46b8242c907edaa2f9e4de07f2fc7455120f1a9efc25ff7eaa16f00ce4aa

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6k2wl00cgr6dizpv7uddl",
 "edge": -0.150491,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.56369,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC6a167…1d78

6a167565f180e1d8478274112c2d40a1bbc2e92f6d2bf2f6717d2f6bbebe1d78

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmux6k2wl00cgr6dizpv7uddl",
 "edge": -0.150491,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.56369,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 56.4% · DRAW 24.0% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-06 21:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-06 21:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.33
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000798

1X2 · HOME · 58.0% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.72
Market price: 1.33
Probability gap: 13.2 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 09:11 UTC64d6e…0574

64d6eb28fa83fdbbaefe29a87dfa45606af7d9d74c63acd9f15584683d5c0574

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw4vuq00cor6054p95p0su",
 "edge": -0.132316,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.579943,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC01227…ac4b

01227d3c18af3523888be78f66db9f879af9657fd82e82e5d90769dc12afac4b

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuxw4vuq00cor6054p95p0su",
 "edge": -0.132316,
 "fairOdds": 1.72,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T09:11:22.183Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.579943,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 58.0% · DRAW 22.6% · AWAY 19.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.33
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000798.v2

1X2 · HOME · 56.4% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.77
Market price: 1.33
Probability gap: 15.1 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCb1434…94a2

b1434a0747b6b6574e358e5ef5d51c3a734faab87162479ffd12be6e3df394a2

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfbw7400dur68kdnir0te6",
 "edge": -0.150946,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.56369,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC00eac…2cdb

00eac1cbd26e50a500ea305f5f7704331115ea0b8ceaa91c478263cdad772cdb

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfbw7400dur68kdnir0te6",
 "edge": -0.150946,
 "fairOdds": 1.77,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.33,
 "modelProbability": 0.56369,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 56.4% · DRAW 24.0% · AWAY 19.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.33
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000798.v3

1X2 · HOME · 53.6% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.87
Market price: 1.36
Probability gap: 16.3 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC26c94…7d87

26c94a9c7e8d105c39d6f75cfdf69b9862ef5d9e69325b808bbe4e2ea83f7d87

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eezo00byr60xvmqppdnw",
 "edge": -0.163106,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.536053,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC476c6…f51c

476c666ba164de26b5619c9f5b46bda0cb26692cfcace6e3e88329a9e8c2f51c

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eezo00byr60xvmqppdnw",
 "edge": -0.163106,
 "fairOdds": 1.87,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.536053,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 53.6% · DRAW 25.8% · AWAY 20.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.36
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000798.v4

1X2 · HOME · 56.1% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.78
Market price: 1.36
Probability gap: 14 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC6c66c…2fef

6c66cc0f0308d38f4e823e19e504e0284ec23305193b276db3bd07debee22fef

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26gmya00g1r65xf0b2ftml",
 "edge": -0.140255,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.560592,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC16479…8d9d

1647991594d9b91e473fcaec6cabb0d8064fbeb3264edfabbd95978b1bf68d9d

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26gmya00g1r65xf0b2ftml",
 "edge": -0.140255,
 "fairOdds": 1.78,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.36,
 "modelProbability": 0.560592,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000798.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000798.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 56.1% · DRAW 24.5% · AWAY 19.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.36
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.