MQ-000799
Real Madrid v Villarreal · La Liga · Sat 10 Oct · 19:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.48
- Market price
- 1.30
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Tue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordTue 6 Oct · 21:13 UTC7c957…e07b
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmux6k2wl00cgr6dizpv7uddl",
"edge": -0.054609,
"fairOdds": 1.48,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.3,
"modelProbability": 0.674558,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000799",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC29d49…5c64
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmux6k2wl00cgr6dizpv7uddl",
"edge": -0.054609,
"fairOdds": 1.48,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-06T21:13:45.306Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.3,
"modelProbability": 0.674558,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000799",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 67.5% · UNDER 32.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-06 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-06 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.30
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000799
- Fair price
- 1.52
- Market price
- 1.29
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC0bec5…887b
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eezo00byr60xvmqppdnw",
"edge": -0.074358,
"fairOdds": 1.52,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.659113,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000799.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000799",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSat 10 Oct · 17:02 UTCa2981…3f55
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eezo00byr60xvmqppdnw",
"edge": -0.074358,
"fairOdds": 1.52,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmurynnm302gjjv04qsfyqed4",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.29,
"modelProbability": 0.659113,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000799.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000799",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T17:02:05.868Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 65.9% · UNDER 34.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.29
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.