PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000801

MQ-000801

Como v Roma · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 10:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 48.5% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 2.06
Market price: 2.64
Probability gap: 12.6 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC75810…d803

7581069a246653531f42ac957633cb2d6b8f47d4a9b0a2418508732e435cd803

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuy2goqb008ar6luovfnm1c7",
 "edge": 0.126308,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.64,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTCa97fc…99d9

a97fcb415f73fde6612a8d9c76d7f7ae1875966e5211deff8fb0916dc35099d9

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuy2goqb008ar6luovfnm1c7",
 "edge": 0.126308,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.64,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T08:32:05.576Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 12:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 12:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.64
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000801

1X2 · AWAY · 38.3% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.61
Market price: 2.63
Probability gap: 2.2 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 18:09 UTC8b2a4…e123

8b2a4ba480c47ed62c4e3c94671c0437baabc682bae1396905bf172486c7e123

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzurd2x0060r65yibg3vp75",
 "edge": 0.02243,
 "fairOdds": 2.61,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T18:09:01.091Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.382624,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T18:09:01.091Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC57ca3…291b

57ca373f20a3122fbba72083e81b61bb6fad772bd258b7b258840a81ab1d291b

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzurd2x0060r65yibg3vp75",
 "edge": 0.02243,
 "fairOdds": 2.61,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T18:09:01.091Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.382624,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T08:32:05.576Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 35.0% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 38.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.63
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000801.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 48.5% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.06
Market price: 2.65
Probability gap: 12.7 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC26adc…9686

26adc55eacdafdb2c36c2529d7ee5197e08d317ccb696983f114efc8191f9686

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26gqza00gqr65xqhh6ut24",
 "edge": 0.127178,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTCc885b…b5ed

c885b9a53bb4965d7224c0691b90e7aee82bbd991098eef9b9f557a9bf77b5ed

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26gqza00gqr65xqhh6ut24",
 "edge": 0.127178,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.65,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T08:32:05.576Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.65
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000801.v3

1X2 · HOME · 37.2% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.69
Market price: 2.53
Probability gap: 0.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC8a861…1632

8a86197c335cc9ba0e4c58304e7063c48d3fcba8ac9e4565098bd05602a01632

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cuun6009ir6uq1859vua3",
 "edge": -0.002999,
 "fairOdds": 2.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.371616,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTCb97e0…f31e

b97e0d1885c195d4684aa74c8f9224634990a71c7ca8f8cc8fb05ac9bc38f31e

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cuun6009ir6uq1859vua3",
 "edge": -0.002999,
 "fairOdds": 2.69,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.371616,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T08:32:05.576Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 37.2% · DRAW 25.8% · AWAY 37.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.53
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000801.v4

1X2 · HOME · 40.4% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.48
Market price: 2.51
Probability gap: 2.5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC34120…a5f0

34120909680bfd51567791313395cecc096af19e722ef8eac9bbba4075a3a5f0

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w4n6x0002r6le06bewa8f",
 "edge": 0.025476,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.51,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 08:32 UTC8f8c0…6f8a

8f8c0cd515348062676ddbe2f13c15ea76ae7aa327e2852476fe4f4564b56f8a

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w4n6x0002r6le06bewa8f",
 "edge": 0.025476,
 "fairOdds": 2.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65i7y002wjx044tctfodf",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.51,
 "modelProbability": 0.403747,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000801.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000801.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T08:32:05.576Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 40.4% · DRAW 26.3% · AWAY 33.4%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 21:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 21:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.51
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.