MQ-000804
Elche v Celta · La Liga · Sun 11 Oct · 12:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.71
- Market price
- 2.59
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 10:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 12:08 UTC1625c…408d
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuy2gwm500a4r6luyato44mq",
"edge": 0.003393,
"fairOdds": 2.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65hfj0022jx04zdy02fec",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.59,
"modelProbability": 0.369223,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000804",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 10:32 UTCe6bc6…f4c3
{
"confidenceScore": 73,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuy2gwm500a4r6luyato44mq",
"edge": 0.003393,
"fairOdds": 2.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65hfj0022jx04zdy02fec",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T12:08:43.030Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.59,
"modelProbability": 0.369223,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000804",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T10:32:04.709Z",
"selection": "AWAY"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 35.0% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 36.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 12:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 12:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.59
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000804
- Fair price
- 2.62
- Market price
- 2.80
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.3 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 10:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC28193…6489
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01elce00dar60x3ubkdtby",
"edge": 0.042543,
"fairOdds": 2.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65hfj0022jx04zdy02fec",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.8,
"modelProbability": 0.382014,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000804.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000804",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 10:32 UTC71f84…1347
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01elce00dar60x3ubkdtby",
"edge": 0.042543,
"fairOdds": 2.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65hfj0022jx04zdy02fec",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.8,
"modelProbability": 0.382014,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000804.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000804",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T10:32:04.709Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 38.2% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 33.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.80
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000804.v2
- Fair price
- 2.51
- Market price
- 2.79
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Fri 9 Oct · 12:09 UTC
- Published
- Fri 9 Oct · 12:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 10:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 12:09 UTCe647a…0456
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv0xddxr005kr6vnzrypwh6y",
"edge": 0.057435,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65hfj0022jx04zdy02fec",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T12:09:46.725Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.79,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000804.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000804.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-09T12:09:46.725Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 10:32 UTCfd66e…1465
{
"confidenceScore": 90,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv0xddxr005kr6vnzrypwh6y",
"edge": 0.057435,
"fairOdds": 2.51,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65hfj0022jx04zdy02fec",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-09T12:09:46.725Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 2.79,
"modelProbability": 0.397893,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000804.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000804.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T10:32:04.709Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 39.8% · DRAW 27.3% · AWAY 32.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-09 12:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-09 12:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H24_48
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 2.79
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.