PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000807

MQ-000807

Hull v Everton · Premier League · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 48.9% · confidence 76

בוטל

Fair price: 2.04
Market price: 3.67
Probability gap: 23 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC9c1af…4c0a

9c1afc7b7fd6bbb7255ed765010de1a70daced83519e1ae51373fda254c54c0a

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfc4i800eur68k31sl6h16",
 "edge": 0.230468,
 "fairOdds": 2.04,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.489257,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC0f856…6baa

0f8564dafded9bc70cb3398cddf71d52e9e3597b5ec18f0c3b8e19f366266baa

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfc4i800eur68k31sl6h16",
 "edge": 0.230468,
 "fairOdds": 2.04,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.489257,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.9% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 25.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.67
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000807

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 3.67
Probability gap: 19.4 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC707c5…c87e

707c56ab18209271be6b73472a6688402e4caaf6b080a75bb2bca8d6e2b7c87e

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbw3tl00egr6l82e8823to",
 "edge": 0.194049,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC01653…8028

01653684de359f83b94c45816b7646600f3376eba419523288d6534d7ff08028

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbw3tl00egr6l82e8823to",
 "edge": 0.194049,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.67
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000807.v2

1X2 · HOME · 48.9% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.04
Market price: 3.67
Probability gap: 23 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCe14d2…8aa2

e14d2f2b73ea3d4ece3aa5f145ed32dfd7d1cf0450a574cda51598e9ee928aa2

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzof1pf00i8r6dadxev6w5v",
 "edge": 0.230414,
 "fairOdds": 2.04,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.489257,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC303f3…1629

303f34cf0fda4409e69f88d131fd7c568406de0af3b8d159c392f892aa6f1629

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzof1pf00i8r6dadxev6w5v",
 "edge": 0.230414,
 "fairOdds": 2.04,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.489257,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 48.9% · DRAW 25.9% · AWAY 25.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.67
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000807.v3

1X2 · HOME · 46.9% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.13
Market price: 3.67
Probability gap: 21 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTCdb83a…98ee

db83a04e1747488f39d66fcf4739604462948f329c49f0a03e485b4f607698ee

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01ep6k00ekr60x5m4qge5v",
 "edge": 0.209944,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCb3c84…fb75

b3c84ed2b354538c66c9eaf2c209a3ad48301403914744b5b7c27fca2ecefb75

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01ep6k00ekr60x5m4qge5v",
 "edge": 0.209944,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.67
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000807.v4

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 75 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 3.67
Probability gap: 16.5 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 00:09 UTCbe6c3…0d8d

be6c3950ef1a7afc09f8c68f6ae3a3aa70aafbe4f70e5e44ca9e06f028040d8d

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07mkzi00c2r6w0ze53ml8w",
 "edge": 0.165053,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCc84ca…4ede

c84ca13067872ce50f0b257de3255a01893df1da94446894989c5ad1bbac4ede

{
 "confidenceScore": 75,
 "dataQualityScore": 49,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv07mkzi00c2r6w0ze53ml8w",
 "edge": 0.165053,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gjc001ajx044q80b1hq",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T00:09:01.862Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 3.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000807.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000807.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 3.67
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.