PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000808

MQ-000808

Lecce v Bologna · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 1.92
Probability gap: 1.4 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCf232f…692e

f232f0b01aafe824c10255ceff6d1e71bc2948bf59baa79f374d32101e2d692e

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfc8fe00fgr68khvnlzt3e",
 "edge": -0.013797,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.92,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC64ea8…5120

64ea8d92f4acea7280e02da40c047a404ef4b5e938cb5a889e857c646d585120

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfc8fe00fgr68khvnlzt3e",
 "edge": -0.013797,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.92,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.92
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000808

1X2 · AWAY · 50.2% · confidence 86 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 1.91
Probability gap: 0.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC3a0a0…6891

3a0a00820364e969380f0eb545d4dec9283ecd3791e8cd59a63df732e8d56891

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbwrec00g0r6l8cw54lkgw",
 "edge": 0.006062,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC9d58f…40f9

9d58f28b7cedf7af00354a5eed8487dccd554b4d58d4ab8f2713fff3687240f9

{
 "confidenceScore": 86,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbwrec00g0r6l8cw54lkgw",
 "edge": 0.006062,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.9% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.91
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000808.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 1.91
Probability gap: 1.7 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTCaad51…a858

aad51b79bd8c4334b94b57eb5d9d910f5b4a34f714b70b4b678a6d1fc89ca858

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzof8zk00j6r6dayuorgjjn",
 "edge": -0.01749,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC11bdd…e6b6

11bdddeb617c077ef9145856d6137f42b6036731c0809dddf0bf8be3b2c6e6b6

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzof8zk00j6r6dayuorgjjn",
 "edge": -0.01749,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.91
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000808.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 40.8% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.45
Market price: 1.91
Probability gap: 8.8 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC7190e…121d

7190ea5e55d3a0c157aee9a761d132d7c4f56bf4ce72da41f66ae9a64de7121d

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eyd900gqr60x0sx72808",
 "edge": -0.087768,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC7418c…b991

7418cdd4423a6e0bc9c5a9307bb27fab8670c67eba0f28255cea007c3e64b991

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eyd900gqr60x0sx72808",
 "edge": -0.087768,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.91
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000808.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 39.5% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.53
Market price: 1.91
Probability gap: 10.1 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC080c5…1f2f

080c58fdf47363a1c14c7444487308eea770ae4a0eb526eb606169b549501f2f

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv32hdzl000wr6ohj1rgsqab",
 "edge": -0.100531,
 "fairOdds": 2.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.395348,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC2cc8b…950d

2cc8b77023c3576094240b89af9d4ebaeba340e7b6db8e35ce87b8d6b563950d

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv32hdzl000wr6ohj1rgsqab",
 "edge": -0.100531,
 "fairOdds": 2.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.91,
 "modelProbability": 0.395348,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 28.2% · DRAW 32.2% · AWAY 39.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.91
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000808.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 39.5% · confidence 92 · reason: Official lineup

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.53
Market price: 2.02
Probability gap: 7.5 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTCce9d5…d232

ce9d5be65a443a5e1a8b9bda857bb9f26e81925f56eb25190412895a7f02d232

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q64fu008or66ynuw8o8if",
 "edge": -0.075155,
 "fairOdds": 2.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.02,
 "modelProbability": 0.395348,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC163d0…c076

163d0e19da23af524d7e3e99d1db8bc87e720f99672b1ba1e7398f734b14c076

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q64fu008or66ynuw8o8if",
 "edge": -0.075155,
 "fairOdds": 2.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.02,
 "modelProbability": 0.395348,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000808.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000808.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 28.2% · DRAW 32.2% · AWAY 39.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 11:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 11:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.02
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.