MQ-000809
Lecce v Bologna · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.71
- Market price
- 1.75
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCfbb38…ad92
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfc8fe00fgr68khvnlzt3e",
"edge": 0.043841,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.75,
"modelProbability": 0.584523,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000809",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC9c91d…c601
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfc8fe00fgr68khvnlzt3e",
"edge": 0.043841,
"fairOdds": 1.71,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.75,
"modelProbability": 0.584523,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000809",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 41.5% · UNDER 58.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.75
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000809
- Fair price
- 1.66
- Market price
- 1.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.7 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC5ead5…4fee
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eyd900gqr60x0sx72808",
"edge": 0.056736,
"fairOdds": 1.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.601473,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000809.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000809",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC1aebb…97f4
{
"confidenceScore": 93,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01eyd900gqr60x0sx72808",
"edge": 0.056736,
"fairOdds": 1.66,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.601473,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000809.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000809",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 39.9% · UNDER 60.1%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000809.v2
- Fair price
- 1.62
- Market price
- 1.73
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 00:09 UTC122dc…34ea
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv32hdzl000wr6ohj1rgsqab",
"edge": 0.069881,
"fairOdds": 1.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.617001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000809.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000809.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC9e90d…a08b
{
"confidenceScore": 92,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv32hdzl000wr6ohj1rgsqab",
"edge": 0.069881,
"fairOdds": 1.62,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ibz0032jx04w6d4nbr3",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T00:09:54.547Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.73,
"modelProbability": 0.617001,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000809.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000809.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "UNDER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 38.3% · UNDER 61.7%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 00:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 00:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.73
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.