PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000811

MQ-000811

Nice v Strasbourg · Ligue 1 · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 40.8% · confidence 93

בוטל

Fair price: 2.45
Market price: 2.92
Probability gap: 8.4 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTCe5930…1930

e59302380da9bf8300443e9ebef08adda8c32ed2eedfd95deab5f01ddd9e1930

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcedv00hgr68k1eulfygv",
 "edge": 0.08403,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.92,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC96f92…e234

96f9273b898f017cd427580dfa04f6d79e0076aa74bea2848de54ca736ace234

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcedv00hgr68k1eulfygv",
 "edge": 0.08403,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.92,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.92
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000811

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 93 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 2.90
Probability gap: 5 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 03:14 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 03:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 03:14 UTCe3788…d193

e378801826557dc3de6f83a9f5bf147a16243b21d66a98c19df66345891dd193

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv392ioh0012r6zmtxe3gim0",
 "edge": 0.049784,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T03:14:07.495Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000811",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T03:14:07.495Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC731b2…5d4c

731b249e5345063af2a79548f170a6ea37dd53287de6f30bba45e3a797df5d4c

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv392ioh0012r6zmtxe3gim0",
 "edge": 0.049784,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T03:14:07.495Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.9,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000811",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 03:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 03:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.90
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000811.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 40.8% · confidence 93 · reason: Official lineup

בוטל

Fair price: 2.45
Market price: 2.98
Probability gap: 9 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTCadc5b…6102

adc5b095e55ca8d2c9bcc0e1ad7e340e1b322fca0ee7cfc0b30eef644a4e6102

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q6m9g00a8r66y64jbt3ss",
 "edge": 0.090098,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.98,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000811.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTCdd219…c032

dd219d2bba15cc589fba9cb893bb5ecce53f5057943455ec61e45cefd390c032

{
 "confidenceScore": 93,
 "dataQualityScore": 82,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q6m9g00a8r66y64jbt3ss",
 "edge": 0.090098,
 "fairOdds": 2.45,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.98,
 "modelProbability": 0.408253,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000811.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 29.1% · DRAW 30.1% · AWAY 40.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 11:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 11:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.98
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000811.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 37.7% · confidence 96 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.66
Market price: 2.98
Probability gap: 5.8 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 12:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC8177a…cbf7

8177a8a4f16235a28e141c1179f2528b81947f21d121708c4e9e550023d5cbf7

{
 "confidenceScore": 96,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sa4s0000qr6tmo3gnyq7i",
 "edge": 0.05842,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.98,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000811.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 12:32 UTC1c0e5…df63

1c0e52c16586fcd9847fbadf1a029686f359837765b0efcab93204ef55cfdf63

{
 "confidenceScore": 96,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sa4s0000qr6tmo3gnyq7i",
 "edge": 0.05842,
 "fairOdds": 2.66,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65kf9004sjx048vromw0b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.98,
 "modelProbability": 0.376575,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000811.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000811.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:32:05.626Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 34.6% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 37.7%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H0_1
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.98
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.