PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000814

MQ-000814

Crystal Palace v Nott'm Forest · Premier League · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 2.68
Probability gap: 12.4 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC9cbcd…5f2c

9cbcd2ab2da94b7e1386129bdf5caaf6eac0f748f3a7fba8187842044f6c5f2c

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcjxv00j4r68kxycwzb7c",
 "edge": 0.123791,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.68,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCe5e07…5cc2

e5e0788e5a1af5d8279e3ac504e7b8cff17fa8d9dec88aeaf77563460f3b5cc2

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcjxv00j4r68kxycwzb7c",
 "edge": 0.123791,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.68,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.68
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000814

1X2 · AWAY · 50.9% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.97
Market price: 2.67
Probability gap: 15.3 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTCc88f8…f05c

c88f876affee844f3311c59579246a606506cdc07edf6ded8ef10eccc79df05c

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01errg00f6r60xrvq9sq0c",
 "edge": 0.152573,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.508832,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC5017b…0637

5017bcb3a412f9d0919b87d72fcc93e113d9ebe942e04e17d2f972ecdfb30637

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01errg00f6r60xrvq9sq0c",
 "edge": 0.152573,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.67,
 "modelProbability": 0.508832,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.3% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.67
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000814.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 52.9% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 2.61
Probability gap: 16.4 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTCda95c…1425

da95ca5a9817c67ed17ddbde07686dd80c15f799cb7717cd120d5f0743dc1425

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13ytif00f5r6j3b21gns69",
 "edge": 0.163889,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.61,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCfbe75…16bd

fbe75d79d6b6bafa0b8b5d763175294a6c757939fdee306f53c984c46f4e16bd

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13ytif00f5r6j3b21gns69",
 "edge": 0.163889,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.61,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.61
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000814.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 50.2% · confidence 91 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 2.61
Probability gap: 13.7 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTCdc334…f880

dc33409a6ff507dc52afa6a6ee12c3760910b532d8518c4340f8072240cff880

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26h0jb00htr65x7t7v7gzi",
 "edge": 0.137107,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.61,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC6e342…0986

6e342f93e8bc4c45c4f6a82655cd8e4488ec5bf301b5ec60d81afa3541bc0986

{
 "confidenceScore": 91,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26h0jb00htr65x7t7v7gzi",
 "edge": 0.137107,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.61,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.9% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.61
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000814.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 52.9% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.89
Market price: 2.59
Probability gap: 16.1 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC95ea3…e514

95ea3b3bf060ad9d24bbdb0dad0aa66f2cd1723d732537e05b1e68a0582ee514

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cv5zz00b6r6uq710bnhg9",
 "edge": 0.161162,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.59,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCa41a3…265a

a41a3c534d7db6eff13b7bbd35e5393c5b602f762daf5fff7607426218c5265a

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cv5zz00b6r6uq710bnhg9",
 "edge": 0.161162,
 "fairOdds": 1.89,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.59,
 "modelProbability": 0.528559,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 20.4% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 52.9%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.59
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000814.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 50.2% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.99
Market price: 2.58
Probability gap: 13.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTCbb16d…70f6

bb16d4e78b280350739fef161d67ecbe00cf71e15f4a13bffb69e12b373f70f6

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w54vn0015r6le8ur5dywa",
 "edge": 0.132869,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC09a70…4b4c

09a70b8398326798dd6d3f911825da15268939c7b258341d461efc72ce4b4b4c

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w54vn0015r6le8ur5dywa",
 "edge": 0.132869,
 "fairOdds": 1.99,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.58,
 "modelProbability": 0.502249,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.9% · DRAW 27.8% · AWAY 50.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 21:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 21:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.58
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000814.v6

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

החטאה

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 2.55
Probability gap: 10.4 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 06:09 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 06:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 06:09 UTCa83b2…6aa4

a83b29ed9e9a71246f8b6dca09a221c0023a11675c1acd0f2cddc47674b86aa4

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3fc7a0000kr62ary1itu08",
 "edge": 0.104153,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T06:09:56.939Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.55,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T06:09:56.939Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC43fdd…d270

43fddab55a9317b701dd65e502a4f2a3cd98bb1dc5e354779280db5a3df3d270

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3fc7a0000kr62ary1itu08",
 "edge": 0.104153,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T06:09:56.939Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.55,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000814.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000814.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 06:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 06:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H6_12
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.55
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.