MQ-000815
Crystal Palace v Nott'm Forest · Premier League · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.91
- Market price
- 1.96
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.9 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC11eaa…6a05
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcjxv00j4r68kxycwzb7c",
"edge": 0.039363,
"fairOdds": 1.91,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.522213,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000815",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC8fcce…f7ba
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcjxv00j4r68kxycwzb7c",
"edge": 0.039363,
"fairOdds": 1.91,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.96,
"modelProbability": 0.522213,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000815",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 52.2% · UNDER 47.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.96
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000815
- Fair price
- 1.86
- Market price
- 1.97
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 5.5 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 21:13 UTC34b54…118c
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuylwdp2007kr6wi357qoh52",
"edge": 0.054998,
"fairOdds": 1.86,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.536577,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000815.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000815",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCd6345…10f4
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuylwdp2007kr6wi357qoh52",
"edge": 0.054998,
"fairOdds": 1.86,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T21:13:01.714Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.97,
"modelProbability": 0.536577,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000815.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000815",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 53.7% · UNDER 46.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 21:13Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 21:13Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.97
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000815.v2
- Fair price
- 1.88
- Market price
- 1.91
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 3.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Published
- Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC41350…e336
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01errg00f6r60xrvq9sq0c",
"edge": 0.034234,
"fairOdds": 1.88,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.531602,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000815.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000815.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC19272…ad97
{
"confidenceScore": 91,
"dataQualityScore": 80,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv01errg00f6r60xrvq9sq0c",
"edge": 0.034234,
"fairOdds": 1.88,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65gnw001gjx04m4fkge8b",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
"market": "OU25",
"marketOdds": 1.91,
"modelProbability": 0.531602,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000815.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000815.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "OVER"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- OVER 53.2% · UNDER 46.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-08 21:14Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H48_72
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.91
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.