MQ-000817
Lazio v Monza · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 13:00 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 2.13
- Market price
- 1.57
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 13.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC89660…5779
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcprk00l4r68k4r8hz3jm",
"edge": -0.133525,
"fairOdds": 2.13,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ig10038jx04s1vtd4k8",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.57,
"modelProbability": 0.468787,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000817",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTCb1058…2379
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcprk00l4r68k4r8hz3jm",
"edge": -0.133525,
"fairOdds": 2.13,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ig10038jx04s1vtd4k8",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.57,
"modelProbability": 0.468787,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000817",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.57
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000817
- Fair price
- 2.08
- Market price
- 1.64
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 9.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC54ede…2a5d
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w5asr001yr6lespo4li9p",
"edge": -0.098144,
"fairOdds": 2.08,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ig10038jx04s1vtd4k8",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.480393,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000817.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000817",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:02 UTC95e8d…43e3
{
"confidenceScore": 87,
"dataQualityScore": 76,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w5asr001yr6lespo4li9p",
"edge": -0.098144,
"fairOdds": 2.08,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ig10038jx04s1vtd4k8",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.480393,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000817.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000817",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:02:06.222Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.0% · DRAW 27.0% · AWAY 24.9%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.64
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 3 · previous MQ-000817.v2
- Fair price
- 2.07
- Market price
- 1.72
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 7 percentage points
- Generated
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
- Published
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC5b744…9b68
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 78,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q6bvu009hr66yk8lptvpv",
"edge": -0.069747,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ig10038jx04s1vtd4k8",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.72,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000817.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000817.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC19134…852b
{
"confidenceScore": 88,
"dataQualityScore": 78,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q6bvu009hr66yk8lptvpv",
"edge": -0.069747,
"fairOdds": 2.07,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65ig10038jx04s1vtd4k8",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.72,
"modelProbability": 0.482266,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000817.v3",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000817.v2",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 48.2% · DRAW 26.9% · AWAY 24.8%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-11 11:08Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-11 11:08Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H1_6
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.72
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.