PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000821

MQ-000821

FC Koln v M'gladbach · Bundesliga · Sun 11 Oct · 13:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

OU25 · OVER · 66.4% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 1.51
Market price: 1.49
Probability gap: 2.8 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC5bd56…20f1

5bd56b1f4b3715074fdaf0887cbb5e649e5ce3447c41fdd2a8b1967a116a20f1

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcvip00myr68k12joia97",
 "edge": 0.028177,
 "fairOdds": 1.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.49,
 "modelProbability": 0.663874,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTCa8794…7067

a8794adafc92faf9462f9204f2520b294437674e980ab0d4289857880cd57067

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfcvip00myr68k12joia97",
 "edge": 0.028177,
 "fairOdds": 1.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.49,
 "modelProbability": 0.663874,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 66.4% · UNDER 33.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.49
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000821

OU25 · OVER · 67.7% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.48
Market price: 1.49
Probability gap: 4.1 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTCceab8…42fc

ceab84ebac5f738076a9ac60588a7eb06c07daacd1b5b9c4c7eaf307cd4942fc

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbx9on00gwr6l8lugjsduv",
 "edge": 0.04121,
 "fairOdds": 1.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.49,
 "modelProbability": 0.676907,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTCa03d1…6bf2

a03d102eac85162a91c8957fb0f09cee8164fb9f9798622237c36786dda16bf2

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbx9on00gwr6l8lugjsduv",
 "edge": 0.04121,
 "fairOdds": 1.48,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.49,
 "modelProbability": 0.676907,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 67.7% · UNDER 32.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.49
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000821.v2

OU25 · OVER · 66.4% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.51
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 3.3 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC43b7e…2501

43b7e1d920c2bf6542d9d5e8a09fd19857db8a488a9d2684a1e9b3fe67082501

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzofepb00k4r6dadz4qohsa",
 "edge": 0.033291,
 "fairOdds": 1.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.663833,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC1ff03…6b20

1ff031732cba7b98e4aff2c30de9e32894bb08223b7974932ad9edfc6fe96b20

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzofepb00k4r6dadz4qohsa",
 "edge": 0.033291,
 "fairOdds": 1.51,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.663833,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 66.4% · UNDER 33.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000821.v3

OU25 · OVER · 65.4% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.53
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 2.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC75440…8e9e

754404a335b9954a4326ab9e6439d61692edaf0e8b3b110eee3cef25f5f38e9e

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n3b6x007vr6f06ptlb7nu",
 "edge": 0.02317,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.653712,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTCe533b…21ac

e533b74497c04c11d022f0589808e7101bebf180c2fc516409b09bd6863d21ac

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n3b6x007vr6f06ptlb7nu",
 "edge": 0.02317,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.653712,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 65.4% · UNDER 34.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000821.v4

OU25 · OVER · 66.8% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.50
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 3.7 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC8baa5…fa45

8baa53e263ceca0ba729454869defb08ccc3fb426c9076dbe043b0c5c2e2fa45

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26hdje00j4r65xibts60ic",
 "edge": 0.03732,
 "fairOdds": 1.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.667862,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC31c51…401e

31c51a5fe64aa6cc911df3f91221c95d856da4d3b2ab05b8b2e37ab2a28f401e

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26hdje00j4r65xibts60ic",
 "edge": 0.03732,
 "fairOdds": 1.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.667862,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 66.8% · UNDER 33.2%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000821.v5

OU25 · OVER · 65.4% · confidence 88 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.53
Market price: 1.50
Probability gap: 2.3 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 15:14 UTCc5548…99cf

c5548c9e4a28948c27625de25c1ed9ffc007ce0ee5c3e4f23ea8625a521e99cf

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2jf8c50071r6xiedhcllz4",
 "edge": 0.02314,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.653682,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC557cb…49ac

557cba9c1720de6d6cf618f9ad59b76c548a4b8dfc1f697414cd5a9c1eb549ac

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 78,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2jf8c50071r6xiedhcllz4",
 "edge": 0.02314,
 "fairOdds": 1.53,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T15:14:32.307Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.5,
 "modelProbability": 0.653682,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 65.4% · UNDER 34.6%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 15:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 15:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H12_24
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.50
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000821.v6

OU25 · OVER · 66.5% · confidence 90 · reason: Official lineup

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.50
Market price: 1.53
Probability gap: 4.6 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 11:08 UTC39fdc…505f

39fdce20b22e2ba7b9e2f805695faca72ae20b7b05ac928c841391073c91505f

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q6wb800bgr66ynbim3h3r",
 "edge": 0.04555,
 "fairOdds": 1.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.664953,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 11:32 UTC081a7…6e9d

081a76bbe25ebd1e370626d77fc90be31dc81652e83af3d07d7821d1aa2c6e9d

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3q6wb800bgr66ynbim3h3r",
 "edge": 0.04555,
 "fairOdds": 1.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65jjs0044jx04nc31sqar",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T11:08:18.882Z",
 "market": "OU25",
 "marketOdds": 1.53,
 "modelProbability": 0.664953,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000821.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000821.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T11:32:02.699Z",
 "selection": "OVER"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: OVER 66.5% · UNDER 33.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 11:08Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 11:08Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.53
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.