PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000823

MQ-000823

Sociedad v La Coruna · La Liga · Sun 11 Oct · 14:15 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 74

בוטל

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.63
Probability gap: 15.9 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC26e8d…632a

26e8daa836393f7e00d4641754f14d6219b33ea6095ea026303ab1472970632a

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfd0tz00oar68kqd3itfki",
 "edge": -0.158831,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC07070…6d75

07070b28b78e85a107c7adb260a29e6b8762b00cdd0bcf43974a3d0621bd6d75

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfd0tz00oar68kqd3itfki",
 "edge": -0.158831,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.63,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:02:02.724Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.63
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000823

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 1.62
Probability gap: 13.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 21:14 UTC7b302…6206

7b3024056089f71b6e1cf0b4cfcb01c0eadd18765cc91e1f6b7996bf68896206

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01f6y300igr60xgenq0qhu",
 "edge": -0.13465,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC2fcdd…61e9

2fcddb59befad1b8a2a4ff608e79f8cfcf73486209bc1f519bb09474537961e9

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv01f6y300igr60xgenq0qhu",
 "edge": -0.13465,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T21:14:49.994Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.62,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:02:02.724Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 21:14Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.62
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000823.v2

1X2 · HOME · 46.9% · confidence 76 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.13
Market price: 1.60
Probability gap: 12.5 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTCe4214…9614

e4214e57afb484688ce9254eabe30ce1e446ebf6070365348f44ca47965d9614

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13zb4400hor6j30n6qn23g",
 "edge": -0.124653,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.6,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTCe6ed4…fcc2

e6ed4ab6476f0c2b3141108375bfbd63107131382c4d627e9f47497510c7fcc2

{
 "confidenceScore": 76,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13zb4400hor6j30n6qn23g",
 "edge": -0.124653,
 "fairOdds": 2.13,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.6,
 "modelProbability": 0.468787,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:02:02.724Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 46.9% · DRAW 27.6% · AWAY 25.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.60
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000823.v3

1X2 · HOME · 45.2% · confidence 77 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.21
Market price: 1.60
Probability gap: 14.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC36fb8…bf8f

36fb88ed309ccbd58b28f4aac296ad63932b6fd9254c7892ebca187d5084bf8f

{
 "confidenceScore": 77,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gv4si0068r6uayiw1h32v",
 "edge": -0.142766,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.6,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC3cec8…af8d

3cec82cadf7ace13c8ea5cf6340fd761878050659e52b0cbce201ff98a7faf8d

{
 "confidenceScore": 77,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gv4si0068r6uayiw1h32v",
 "edge": -0.142766,
 "fairOdds": 2.21,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.6,
 "modelProbability": 0.45247,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:02:02.724Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 45.2% · DRAW 26.7% · AWAY 28.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 21:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 21:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.60
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000823.v4

1X2 · HOME · 42.4% · confidence 74 · reason: Model refresh

פגיעה

Fair price: 2.36
Market price: 1.60
Probability gap: 17.1 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 00:09 UTC8345a…d7ce

8345abaa60144ba5cef0830024f9bf430057b638e427f915b0de3bf17f2ad7ce

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n3gt4008vr6f0kvp77i2u",
 "edge": -0.170969,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.6,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 12:02 UTC43779…d11b

43779886bcf0dc09530c7e6e4a10e2b271d1ad8d2c575bafa5c3e4ece616d11b

{
 "confidenceScore": 74,
 "dataQualityScore": 50,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1n3gt4008vr6f0kvp77i2u",
 "edge": -0.170969,
 "fairOdds": 2.36,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65hjn0028jx04x7tsssjn",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:09:26.631Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.6,
 "modelProbability": 0.423896,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000823.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000823.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:02:02.724Z",
 "selection": "HOME"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 42.4% · DRAW 28.1% · AWAY 29.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 00:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 00:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.60
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.