MQ-000827
Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga · Sun 11 Oct · 15:30 UTC
Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.
Version 1
- Fair price
- 1.61
- Market price
- 1.64
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 4.4 percentage points
- Generated
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Published
- Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC63a6b…b675
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdaca00qyr68krgpr8chz",
"edge": 0.043602,
"fairOdds": 1.61,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65jnv004ajx04t79r8jah",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.621309,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000827",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC8fa72…556b
{
"confidenceScore": 72,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdaca00qyr68krgpr8chz",
"edge": 0.043602,
"fairOdds": 1.61,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65jnv004ajx04t79r8jah",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.64,
"modelProbability": 0.621309,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000827",
"previousPredictionId": null,
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 62.1% · DRAW 22.5% · AWAY 15.3%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-07 18:09Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H72_PLUS
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.64
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
Version 2 · previous MQ-000827
- Fair price
- 1.69
- Market price
- 1.63
- Probability gapWinPIQ's probability minus the market's probability, in percentage points — only where a market price exists. · It's the plain-language size of the disagreement between WinPIQ and the market. · 56% versus 49% is a gap of 7 percentage points. Full definition →
- 0.8 percentage points
- Generated
- Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
- Published
- Sat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTC
- Locked
- Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
- Model artifacts
- 0168d70ef9af
Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 21:12 UTCfeb58…823e
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w656o0044r6le9fzklyrr",
"edge": 0.008005,
"fairOdds": 1.69,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65jnv004ajx04t79r8jah",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.63,
"modelProbability": 0.59085,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000827.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000827",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC177fb…c62b
{
"confidenceScore": 70,
"dataQualityScore": 34,
"dataSnapshotId": "cmv2w656o0044r6le9fzklyrr",
"edge": 0.008005,
"fairOdds": 1.69,
"featureVersion": "f0.3",
"fixtureId": "cmut65jnv004ajx04t79r8jah",
"generatedAt": "2026-10-10T21:12:29.742Z",
"market": "1X2",
"marketOdds": 1.63,
"modelProbability": 0.59085,
"modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
"predictionId": "MQ-000827.v2",
"previousPredictionId": "MQ-000827",
"publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
"selection": "HOME"
}Where this prediction came from
The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.
- Probability vector
- HOME 59.1% · DRAW 24.3% · AWAY 16.6%
- Model version
- ens_v0.3
- Feature version
- f0.3
- Calibration version
- iso_v2
- Calibration scope
- league
- Feature snapshot taken
- 2026-10-10 21:12Z
- Information cutoff
- 2026-10-10 21:12Z
- Data coverage
- ADVANCED
- Lead time
- H12_24
- Analysis standard
- FULL
- Price at lock
- 1.63
- Sources consulted
- not yet recorded by this product
- Signal policy version
- not yet recorded by this product
- Segment health at publication
- not yet recorded by this product
The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.
It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.
WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.