PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000828

MQ-000828

Liverpool v Man City · Premier League · Sun 11 Oct · 15:30 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 48.5% · confidence 88

בוטל

Fair price: 2.06
Market price: 2.54
Probability gap: 11 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC78069…b2ab

7806973befadcb30481dbdab53d6656fda9bba32fd764e758be1d44b58d9b2ab

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdejg00rqr68kr7s3bi1n",
 "edge": 0.110433,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.54,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTCed0e5…ac48

ed0e583ae46a46906a9d0d117fbb7fcd6505467c735dacce5f1511cdc568ac48

{
 "confidenceScore": 88,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdejg00rqr68kr7s3bi1n",
 "edge": 0.110433,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.54,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.54
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000828

1X2 · AWAY · 48.5% · confidence 90 · reason: Market price update

בוטל

Fair price: 2.06
Market price: 2.28
Probability gap: 6.8 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTCb3e78…f295

b3e78bef4f5c12ff094359a3c433196f171ae09cac193f23d7214c5b80ccf295

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13zh6j00ijr6j3w71zak7h",
 "edge": 0.067917,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC58a74…60c0

58a74d2857ef0dc92067afb856b23fc04e78c99e61f997703bdff8a628fe60c0

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13zh6j00ijr6j3w71zak7h",
 "edge": 0.067917,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.28
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000828.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 50.8% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.97
Market price: 2.26
Probability gap: 8.8 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 21:15 UTC4b952…53eb

4b9525b1b0676586129eced52b854aeeb40602ad4d83e26e20d04f2720e553eb

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gvc140073r6uauamsl1r5",
 "edge": 0.087837,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.26,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTCfe28c…eae4

fe28cc7ac33d56eb0adfc331511a2e70b30ebaccd5f47d772d549a03207aeae4

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1gvc140073r6uauamsl1r5",
 "edge": 0.087837,
 "fairOdds": 1.97,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T21:15:14.293Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.26,
 "modelProbability": 0.508381,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 24.8% · DRAW 24.3% · AWAY 50.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 21:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 21:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.26
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000828.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 53.3% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 2.28
Probability gap: 11.6 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 03:13 UTCf417b…1c3d

f417b3e9eccfbfcddb52513f8a9288baa0cadc78240a2396725e3111bdb21c3d

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1tobc5007ur62bv6eqtewh",
 "edge": 0.115836,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTCf0abf…8bfb

f0abfcb7623ecb7d8637a37be59e1bfa4ccc0410e58321a4b56cbd4fbf708bfb

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv1tobc5007ur62bv6eqtewh",
 "edge": 0.115836,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T03:13:38.410Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 53.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 03:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 03:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.28
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000828.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 48.5% · confidence 92 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.06
Market price: 2.29
Probability gap: 6.9 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 09:11 UTC959a3…ec28

959a3b51d2800f9ddabc21ba9f5d02ff93291cc37a4dd53e769939d19235ec28

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26hnfm00kgr65xh354jbw2",
 "edge": 0.069447,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.29,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC1d60e…e818

1d60eb150382c20145bca71aee25249544188b8b6800d6d00bb0e44c63aee818

{
 "confidenceScore": 92,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv26hnfm00kgr65xh354jbw2",
 "edge": 0.069447,
 "fairOdds": 2.06,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T09:11:40.273Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.29,
 "modelProbability": 0.485099,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 26.0% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 48.5%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.29
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000828.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 53.3% · confidence 89 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 2.28
Probability gap: 11.5 percentage points
Generated: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Published: Sat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSat 10 Oct · 12:10 UTCf424d…4788

f424d2d063f96dbcfd4851a8518e37ba26bf5080a899ad70147e18b2f0b94788

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cvqi200czr6uqavlx4c9e",
 "edge": 0.115372,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTCd4533…1712

d4533b8fc891c478facc9b052bbb35882f155d7ea5e44f968b7824da736a1712

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv2cvqi200czr6uqavlx4c9e",
 "edge": 0.115372,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T12:10:57.413Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.28,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 53.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-10 12:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H24_48
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.28
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 7 · previous MQ-000828.v6

1X2 · AWAY · 53.3% · confidence 89 · reason: Market price update

פגיעה

Fair price: 1.88
Market price: 2.14
Probability gap: 8.8 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 12:12 UTC7ee13…8f5e

7ee1365d23e2461e23ff3963d969e9ca5b96bab39636c93256a2fb4081428f5e

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sanyw001zr6tm6z3ct4f1",
 "edge": 0.087805,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.14,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 13:32 UTCbce64…f750

bce642bf91fd47c564ad994cd9cee64502f04e47e78378678c88437a6d85f750

{
 "confidenceScore": 89,
 "dataQualityScore": 72,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3sanyw001zr6tm6z3ct4f1",
 "edge": 0.087805,
 "fairOdds": 1.88,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65grw001mjx04dgxm2ui8",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T12:12:08.532Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 2.14,
 "modelProbability": 0.533018,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000828.v7",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000828.v6",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T13:32:05.924Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 21.2% · DRAW 25.5% · AWAY 53.3%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 12:12Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H1_6
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 2.14
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.