PREDICTION PROOF™ · winpiq.com/proof/MQ-000831

MQ-000831

Sassuolo v Milan · Serie A · Sun 11 Oct · 16:00 UTC

Every prediction is sealed with a hash before kick-off, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. Results are graded from the official score; a correction never overwrites silently — the previous state is written to an append-only correction log first, and the record shows it. The sealing time is WinPIQ's own server clock: no outside party has timestamped it.

Version 1

1X2 · AWAY · 40.1% · confidence 90

בוטל

Fair price: 2.50
Market price: 1.80
Probability gap: 12.5 percentage points
Generated: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Published: Wed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordWed 7 Oct · 18:09 UTC9d007…2bbe

9d00757a1cf2d302cbb0107707585c73bb227d11b4377a857d6a2622663b2bbe

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdl5r00tkr68kbbj367rc",
 "edge": -0.125067,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.8,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC288c6…041d

288c6c3a3b9bff1084340a8da6c43ef29a97757a77ecc311b260e022283c041d

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuyfdl5r00tkr68kbbj367rc",
 "edge": -0.125067,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-07T18:09:04.849Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.8,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831",
 "previousPredictionId": null,
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-07 18:09Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.80
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 2 · previous MQ-000831

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 1.81
Probability gap: 4.6 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 09:16 UTC3fef2…9d97

3fef2c7bcc1f5898be9fe99c14e3f2ea61af25ab9278a784a46b4970ca429d97

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbyfcp00ier6l8xe22uxwc",
 "edge": -0.046309,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC10b7e…8d8d

10b7efaa2c5cb7e8221ba4d159a9785a0803f861a92a41131336cd4b0bfa8d8d

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzbyfcp00ier6l8xe22uxwc",
 "edge": -0.046309,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T09:16:31.392Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v2",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 09:16Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.81
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 3 · previous MQ-000831.v2

1X2 · AWAY · 40.1% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.50
Market price: 1.81
Probability gap: 12.5 percentage points
Generated: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Published: Thu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordThu 8 Oct · 15:10 UTC7473d…8263

7473dc472ede88b98068280c2ac928e6dd4910e8f3de63b82925a4c7b37b8263

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzofrp800lqr6dajpr9dkb0",
 "edge": -0.124587,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTCb7b99…5829

b7b99f6f8b8c360ee324850a88acd3f76ab05ffcdff4fe4b25e4173e54845829

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmuzofrp800lqr6dajpr9dkb0",
 "edge": -0.124587,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-08T15:10:59.262Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v3",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v2",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-08 15:10Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H72_PLUS
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.81
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 4 · previous MQ-000831.v3

1X2 · AWAY · 47.8% · confidence 84 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.09
Market price: 1.81
Probability gap: 4.5 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 09:11 UTCa313e…6eb5

a313e8ce988cb195bd54dbe588f481e54a63949d63b46bac3b7d4e78d35f6eb5

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0r1zdx00f9r6a3pg2n3tdh",
 "edge": -0.045481,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC6b602…498e

6b60255ed6dcbf6b5f0d3fc52b15e9515c6a9c69cc03dbf98e003c859910498e

{
 "confidenceScore": 84,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv0r1zdx00f9r6a3pg2n3tdh",
 "edge": -0.045481,
 "fairOdds": 2.09,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T09:11:45.583Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.478277,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v4",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v3",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 25.7% · DRAW 26.5% · AWAY 47.8%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 09:11Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.81
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 5 · previous MQ-000831.v4

1X2 · AWAY · 40.1% · confidence 90 · reason: Model refresh

בוטל

Fair price: 2.50
Market price: 1.81
Probability gap: 12.3 percentage points
Generated: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Published: Fri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC
Locked: Sun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTC
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordFri 9 Oct · 15:13 UTC70be7…bc42

70be71e4b3d4a44286a0a4ce1aefcd060107f4345c2d0fcff964e3811513bc42

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13znob00jgr6j3pb7y7tna",
 "edge": -0.122781,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Lock recordSun 11 Oct · 14:02 UTCb439e…abd9

b439e562711f92812b66d5de890236b19a412df4b01203e5c9919b4c8121abd9

{
 "confidenceScore": 90,
 "dataQualityScore": 80,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv13znob00jgr6j3pb7y7tna",
 "edge": -0.122781,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-09T15:13:49.571Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.81,
 "modelProbability": 0.400625,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v5",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v4",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T14:02:05.896Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.1%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-09 15:13Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H48_72
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.81
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

Version 6 · previous MQ-000831.v5

1X2 · AWAY · 40.0% · confidence 94 · reason: Market price update

החטאה

Fair price: 2.50
Market price: 1.89
Probability gap: 10.2 percentage points
Generated: Sun 11 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Published: Sun 11 Oct · 15:15 UTC
Locked: —
Model artifacts: 0168d70ef9af

Publication recordSun 11 Oct · 15:15 UTCc2abd…ae5f

c2abdea207d0020e1e66b865b5699da3afe61ce118345990a883629ad383ae5f

{
 "confidenceScore": 94,
 "dataQualityScore": 97,
 "dataSnapshotId": "cmv3yu8gw000zr66dbfq68jro",
 "edge": -0.102045,
 "fairOdds": 2.5,
 "featureVersion": "f0.3",
 "fixtureId": "cmut65ik4003ejx04apwydtkh",
 "generatedAt": "2026-10-11T15:15:53.701Z",
 "market": "1X2",
 "marketOdds": 1.89,
 "modelProbability": 0.400201,
 "modelVersion": "ens_v0.3",
 "predictionId": "MQ-000831.v6",
 "previousPredictionId": "MQ-000831.v5",
 "publishedAt": "2026-10-11T15:15:53.701Z",
 "selection": "AWAY"
}

Where this prediction came from

The inputs and versions behind this row, as they stood when it was published. Rows we do not hold are marked rather than hidden.

Probability vector: HOME 30.4% · DRAW 29.5% · AWAY 40.0%
Model version: ens_v0.3
Feature version: f0.3
Calibration version: iso_v2
Calibration scope: league
Feature snapshot taken: 2026-10-11 15:15Z
Information cutoff: 2026-10-11 15:15Z
Data coverage: ADVANCED
Lead time: H0_1
Analysis standard: FULL
Price at lock: 1.89
Sources consulted: not yet recorded by this product
Signal policy version: not yet recorded by this product
Segment health at publication: not yet recorded by this product

What this proves

The hash shows this payload is unchanged since it was sealed: recompute it and it matches, or it does not.

It does not show WHEN it was sealed. That timestamp is our own server's, in a table the database refuses to update or delete. No outside party has attested it.

WinPIQ is not affiliated with any gambling operator. All information is analysis and probability estimates only — not advice, and not a promise.